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It is shown in the table that export value in the first half of 2008 increased from that of the first half of 2007 by over 20 per cent- quite high considering the economic problems faced by G3 since the beginning of 2008. Such economic problems spread out and affected exports of Asian countries including Thailand, starting from the 4th quarter of 2008 and continuing up until today. Exports in the first five months decreased by over 20 per cent. As a result, the value of exports in 2009 has gone back to more or less the same level as that of 2007- and would be unlikely to reduce further from this level.

Exporters - well prepared as a result of the impact of the world economic situation - would not be panicked by the news of reduced export value in May, since the May figure was not worse than that of the previous months. They are also encouraged by the fact that the reduction in exports has obviously slowed down and some purchase orders are coming back. It is believed that export values in the 3rd and 4th quarters would not decrease from those of the 1st and 2nd quarters. These exporters have taken good care of themselves by reducing stock and production rates down to the same level of 2008, while maintaining employees as much as they can.

Even though the export values in the 3rd and 4th quarters would not be less than that of the 2nd quarter, the 3rd quarter exports would still show negative year on year growth as export value in the 3rd quarter of 2008 did increase from that of 2007 by as much as 26 per cent. By contrast, as exports in the 4th quarter of 2008 reduced from that of 2007 by 10 per cent, exports in the 4th quarter of this year would show a good year on year growth.

I explain this scenario in detail simply to clarify that the fluctuation in year on year change records of export throughout this year is due mainly to the big swing in export value of various quarters last year. We should not be misled and overreact by such a year on year big decrease or increase.

Newspapers should also show the quarter on quarter change in figures. News reports from other countries around the world concentrate mainly on these quarter on quarter change figures to prevent misleading. I would request economic news editors of all news media here improve this.

In summary, from the data in the table, it is believed that our export has recovered since April, when we see the lowest figure this year. It should gradually increase, yet, at a slow pace. We should, from now on, follow the month on month figures or quarter on quarter figures. We could see a steady and firm growth pattern.

Until next Monday.