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Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, frequently on a lecture circuit on key national issues to explain government plans, and on foreign trips to strengthen bilateral relations with close and distant neighbours, might have been somewhat complacent about his command and control ability. His partial success in deflecting the pressure from key coalition partners for lucrative projects could be just temporary.

Surely, they grudgingly wait for the day when they can settle scores, with demand for more compensation when there is a real need to survive future political crises and other adversity.

The devastating defeat of Bhum Jai Thai Party in the Sakon Nakhon by-election at the hands of Pheu Thai Party might have punctured the swelling confidence of Newin Chidchob, who needs to reassess his strength and learn some lessons in modesty. At least, there is a signal that the Newin faction is not yet ready to break with the Democrats, despite their conflicts over benefit sharing.

Pheu Thai's victory just adds one seat for the opposition in the House. It was more a psychological boost for the party for the next general election. It gives the party hope that it can continue to control the poverty-stricken region, despite a challenge from the Newin faction.

The party, which has absolute control over the Northeast, has a strong chance of winning a simple majority in the House. More so, with some allies induced through promises for kickbacks from multimillion-baht projects, stability is quite assured. In the inherent gutter politics like ours, self-serving interests based on fair-sharing usually work better than links through ideologies.

The coalition partners will have to evaluate their respective positions now that there are more variables on the political landscape. Before the vote on Sunday, the Newin faction showed considerable confidence that it would win, with the PR stunts of a team of Cabinet members and key party members on the campaign trail. They hoped to diminish the clout and influence of Thaksin Shinawatra, now in self-imposed exile in Dubai. It was not so. The fugitive's frequent phone-ins to seek support from village leaders still worked as a sacred mantra.

With the by-election victory, Thaksin should feel that all hope of regaining power is not lost despite his present predicament and disgraced status. His grievances, full of self-pity, told through phone-ins to gullible, debt-ridden grass-roots folk obviously worked as a morale booster. That means more political trouble for Abhisit through harassment by red-shirt activists loyal to Thaksin.

There was an extremely unpleasant surprise last week. A group of senators could eventually lose their status if the Constitution Court finds their stock holding in media companies and concessionaires of state-owned entities a violation of the charter. The initial investigation and conclusion by the Election Commission was disturbing, though it was not a unanimous decision.

The sudden hostility of the Senators would complicate matters for Abhisit when he needs cooperation from all quarters for the rescue measures to show positive effects before his popularity and public tolerance run out. He appeared on TV on Sunday with a beseeching message for understanding. He also promised to show transparency in financial and fiscal issues with full clarification.

But another hard blow would come soon when the Election Commission also considers the shareholding of House members, whether they too have violated the charter. Included in the list of MPs are political heavyweights with long years in the House, serving as patrons and kingmakers in their own turfs. If found guilty, they would lose their House membership, though they can still return as Cabinet members if they feel no qualms about political scruples.

The Democrats should feel some pressure if they lose members, making the coalition precarious with a slimmer majority in the House. This would take some time before the Constitutional Court makes a ruling and that can be either for or against the senators and House members depending on the interpretation of the spirit of the law and reality.

What is more disturbing is that there has been no solid achievement on the part of the government in its six months in office. Abhisit has spent more time preventing his coalition partners from pursuing big deals with handsome kickbacks than presiding over the real hard work in keeping the country on the right track. The gruelling fight with the red-shirt activists and thugs has also sapped his strength considerably.

With all the adversity tested and won so far, including two survivals following attempts on his life by political thugs, Abhisit might feel that he has gone through the rite of passage and deserves more time from the public. A bit more patience, maybe, but surely Thaksin would not let slip even a second to hasten the downfall of his younger rival.