Red shirts will be harshly judged if they descend into violence

Is this a mere imagining of Thepthai Senpong, the Democrat MP and spokes-person for party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva? Or was it a real leaked plan that ended up in the wrong hands?

Pheu Thai Party had already denied having anything to do with the plan, which allegedly has five steps.

1. Mobilise the masses.

2. Obstruct the government's work.

3. Spread the protest from Bangkok to the provinces.

4. Lay siege to government offices.

5. Organise a hardcore mass to unleash violence, leading to civil strife, which would divide the populace with the aim of gaining an amnesty for Thaksin and his cohorts.

Nobody has come out to admit the plan exists. But if there really was such a plot, it's unlikely anyone would, as it involves dragging the country into a civil war.

With or without any such plan, the ousted and convicted former premier has kept very busy phoning-in to various red-shirt functions organised by the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD).

Whether the plot is real or not, the DAAD will try again tomorrow (Thursday) to lay siege to Government House.

The latest news is that the government will deploy the Army as well as police. This has upset the DAAD, who have vowed to protest in front of the Army's Headquarters today, as they regard the task of defending Government House for the police.

The DAAD has been mobilising support in Bangkok, the North and Northeast as well. Thaksin spoke via video link to a crowd of 10,000 red shirts on the weekend and made strong claims about many figures, including some members of the Privy Council.

But the key to this confrontation could be how the red shirts can win support, or at least acceptance, from people who are not necessarily red or yellow - the so-called silent majority, and the mass media.

On the media front, the DAAD continues to be opposed and ridiculed by a large portion of the Thai media, which flatly rejects any return of Thaksin - including at the cost of the media themselves becoming uncritical extensions of propaganda expounded by the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

One reporter from Thai Post newspapers told this writer that a radio reporter explained to her how he would never accept free food at a red-shirt rally, but was happy to enjoy free meals made available by the PAD. That was because the PAD was on the "just side", he told her.

DAAD supporters are routinely depicted by a large majority of the Thai media as a paid mob or lackeys of Thaksin. But they neglect the fact some red shirts are not Thaksin's lackeys but want to use the movement as a vehicle to awaken and emancipate the grassroots, by helping to develop a more popular democratic system.

This situation was made worse, however, by the red shirts' intimidatory attack on a Gay Pride Parade due to be staged in Chiang Mai last month, and the recent throwing of a home-made ping-pong bomb at Deputy PM Suthep Thaugsuban's motorcade. Plus there is more.

The homophobia and violence against gays in Chiang Mai was met with silence by the DAAD leadership, which didn't even bother to issue an apology. And subsequent violence by other red shirts prompted no concession of wrongdoing.

Well-educated and progressive elements within the DAAD feel frustrated, as they have tried but failed to influence red-shirt leaders to protest positively. In the end, the red shirts will be judged by the worst crimes committed by its members - just as the PAD was judged by the violence unleashed by some of its members and guards.

Last month, this writer ran into DAAD co-leader Charan Dittapichai, who was a former National Human Rights Commissioner. I told Charan he should make sure the red shirts don't resort to baser instincts, such as violence and homophobia and that their leaders should apologise for any wrongs committed by their peers.

Charan simply shot back: "Do you know that many red shirts wanted to see a heavy-handed 'solution' in the [three] southern-most provinces?" He was referring to brutal suppression of separatists in the far South.

Progressive elements in the movement appear to be losing out, and incidentally, just as Thaksin is taking more direct leadership. This will further undermine the already weak claim that the movement stands for real democracy and is not just a paid-mob or lackeys of the exiled ex-PM.