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Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva will deliver his inaugural address |to Parliament today to chart out the policies of his coalition government. His policies will focus on national reconciliation, restoring confidence and stimulating the economy over the next |one year.

Based on the draft statement, Abhisit would implement measures that would maintain and boost people's income, while reducing their cost of living amid the looming economic crisis. But Abhisit would kick-start the economic boost by planning to spend Bt300 billion as early as January to prop up the economy. The Samak and Somchai governments, which preceded Abhisit's, were too embroiled in the political turmoil to tackle the economic woes. Abhisit has inherited the spending programme. He only needs to spend the money wisely.

Well-known economist Dr Ammar Siamwalla said people now no longer care whether the Abhisit government would adopt populist economic policies or not because it would need to spend money any way. But it has to make sure that the money is well spent and really goes to the sectors that are really in need of support such as agriculture or tourism.

The prime minister has tried to wear a confident look in the face of the economic downturn. He said he is willing to step down if he fails to solve the country's problems, particularly the economic woes.

We need to give the new prime minister all the support he needs to bridge the political divide and to weather the economic storm. But at the same time, we are not comfortable with his overconfident stance. Abhisit might or might not have realised the great challenges lying ahead.

If the global economy were to crack under the weight of the global financial collapse, what could Thailand do to save itself? This is an important question that we all have to ask ourselves seriously.

Most economists view the global economic situation might improve in the second half of 2009 while the crisis would bottom out in the second quarter. Whenever the world has had a crisis, it can sort its way out somehow. But this time nobody can be sure what will happen next. There seem to be surprises almost every day. The US banks are not lending. The US auto companies need federal bail-out. A Ponzi money scheme run by Bernie Madoff collapsed with the evaporation of US$50 billion in investment funds. Now nobody is talking about toxic assets anymore as if they have disappeared for good. Will there be any bank failures?

What started as the US crisis has now spread all over the world, hitting all the major economies including China and Japan. Hong Kong and Singapore, which are regional financial centres, will also be hard hit.

Nobody knows for sure what will happen next year with the state of the global economy. To play it safe, Abhisit and his policy makers should have drawn up the worst-case scenario, in which policy priorities should be worked out in detail in case of a global depression. No matter how severe the depression is, the Thai people must survive.

Now unemployment is projected to reach 1 million next year. How about revising this figure to three million so that the government can come up with a policy response well in advance. Any policy that the Abhisit government will be formulating should not forget the agricultural sector. This sector, which accounts for only 10 per cent of the GDP, will provide the best shock absorber to the unemployment situation. It's time to boost the agricultural sector to strengthen the core of Thailand's future prosperity because most Thais depend on this sector for their livelihood.

Second, it is time people learn to use energy in a more efficient way. There is no point for Thailand to continue to consume energy to the extent that the oil import bill accounts for 8-9 per cent of the GDP. If the money from the oil import bill can be saved, it will be circulated in the economic system instead to create more multiplier effects.

To be fair, Thailand is in a rather good shape to cope with the global crisis ahead. It has relatively low public sector debt, equivalent to only 40 per cent of the gross domestic product. Most of the big companies are operating with low debt. The banks are relatively healthy, although next year several banks will face financial distress. Thailand's international reserves exceed US$100 billion, which covers all foreign-currency debts.

Now is a good time to ponder about ourselves and our future. |The political crisis must be brought to an end quickly. Most political |pundits do not expect his government to last more than a year because Abhisit is heading a weak coalition government. If the politicians do their jobs and do not create scandals, there is no reason why the Abhisit government cannot last longer. We do not need to change too many governments in mid-stream.

We should look at how to strengthen our future. Abhisit's attempt to focus on education is welcome. This is the one area where we have been left far behind. If Thai children can get the best education, we can solve many problems.