Weighing up Abhisit's assets and liabilities

The new prime minister came out of the considerably hostile session relatively unscathed but also unmistakably aware that his perfect English, clean political record and unblemished life honours could not buy the friendship of the Western media.

He will worry about that later, though. For now, he will keep in mind how his mentor, Chuan Leekpai, was embraced by the global media when he was prime minister, only to fall flat on his back after stepping on a land-reform banana peel.

And he will remember how the strong backing predecessors Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat enjoyed from all of the leading foreign media outlets failed to extend their besieged governments' brief life spans.

Abhisit's problems lie at home. The biggest challenge is how to exploit assets before they turn into liabilities and change existing liabilities into assets.

Here are the positives.

He is under no pressure to amend the Constitution. Newin Chidchob on his side means rowdy and massive red-shirt protests are harder to mobilise. His government will be one with a sizeable northeastern representation and a stronger economic team. And Thaksin Shinawatra remains on the run, reportedly with a fast-shrinking war chest.

In addition, Abhisit's party will not have to rule while looking over its shoulder at the Constitution Court all the time. He will not have to keep one eye on the military every other day. And the opposition, with the exception of Chalerm Yoobamrung, may include the biggest number of unqualified speakers in Parliament's history.

The bad news is obvious. It's "Sleeping with the Enemy", not "Romeo and Juliet". Much will depend on the Newin faction, which from now on will walk a very thin line between being Abhisit's biggest asset and his most dangerous liability.

How the new prime minister maximises Newin's northeastern influence and keeps him in the "assets" list will determine how long his government may last.

There will be fewer provocative factors or crisis stimulants. But that does not mean the national divide will not grow deeper and then fester. Economic woes may trigger a chain reaction, and there is no room for a corruption scandal.

Which brings us to the most important stability criterion. The Abhisit government, no matter how fragile its composition appears, may have enough flexibility to make it through the next few months. But corruption can easily change that, and Abhisit's priority is to make sure the "mandate" that was questioned internationally on CNN is not deflated locally.

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