Delays could take asean summit away from thailand

Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has the penchant of hitting the nail on its head. Last Friday, he said the postponement of the 14th Asean summit was a setback for the grouping.

"Asean cooperation is vital to all of our members," he said, explaining his reasoning. This cooperation, he pointed out, has to move on regardless of political developments in member countries, and cannot be held back because of the preoccupations of individual member countries.

Indeed, the same word was used to describe Thailand when the military coup was staged in September 2006. Lee said wittingly that the putsch by then Army chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, after a 15-year lull, was a setback for Thai democracy. His comment created an uproar in Thailand.

Lee was being pragmatic in pushing for an earlier summit, presumably towards the third week of January. In his view, the seriousness of the global financial environment needs to be addressed with urgency - a few days late would be too much. Only through the gathering of leaders from Asean and its dialogue partners can a strong signal be sent throughout the world that Asean is still relevant.

But Lee failed to mention the key reason why Singapore is so eager for an early summit. Being a regional hub for trade, investment and services, the island republic is virtually "the weathervane of Asean" sensing the threatening economic Tsunami coming closer to its shores before others. Without its own natural resources, and depending so much on the economic health of the entire region, this time around Singapore will be harder hit, more than other Asean members with large agricultural, petroleum and mining sectors to cushion their economies. With Asean's exports plummeting, investment shrinking and tourism disappearing, all the service industries will be greatly affected. Singapore is understandably worried about Asean's economic well-being as a whole. It has no other alternative economic sources to depend on.

Following the banning of the ruling party, the People Power Party (PPP), and its two junior partners Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya last week, overall political tension has subsided with Suvarnabhumi Airport back to full operation. But there is still an air of uncertainty as key political players are realigning themselves to form a new government with different coalitions.

Last night, the Democrat Party claimed 250 MP seats culled from various factions of Chart Thai, Matchima Thipataya, Puea Pandin and Friends of Newin. The former ruling coalition partners said the defection was necessary now to end the political crisis currently confronting the nation. The rival group headed by Pheu Thai (the new name for defunct PPP) has not yielded, emphasising that it still has the numbers that include 190 former MPs as well as those from Pracharaj and smaller breakaway groups from Chart Thai. Its tally was 228 yesterday.

In the next day or two these numbers on either side could change at a moment's notice. The Constitution Court has to deliberate very soon on the petition submitted by 40 senators on the status of party-list MPs from banned parties in terms of whether they can join new parties. The status of caretaker prime minister Chaovarat Charnweerakul is also problematic. The court has to determine whether in his current capacity he has the power to dissolve the House. The role of Chai Chidchob as House Speaker is equally crucial as he can call for an extraordinary House session any day soon to pick the new prime minister.

If the Democrat Party could hold on to its lead with unwavering support from new coalition allies, then Thailand will have a new prime minister named Abhisit Vejjajiva. Under his leadership, it is certain that the Asean summit could convene much earlier than scheduled in Bangkok. Abhisit is keen on Asean affairs and understands the importance of Asean to the region and its members. As a trained economist, Singapore's concern over the role of Asean in the face of the global economic crisis would be fully addressed by the Thai leader.

Last Tuesday, the Cabinet's decision to delay the summit to March had assumed that a House dissolution was imminent and a general election would soon kick off. At least 45 to 60 days are needed to organise a proper poll and set up a new government. So, the first week of March was recommended.

However, the outlook for Thai politics in the near term would very much depend on the Constitution Court's vetting. If it decides to void the rights of party-list politicians for crossing over, the Democrats will definitely have far more seats with additional new allies. In a similar vein, the caretaker prime minister's authority in dissolving the House would be affected as well. The former coalition partners are thinking of pulling the rug from under the emerging Democrat-led coalition by calling for a new election before a new prime minister is elected.

The Democrats will be able to redeem some lost confidence in Thailand among the players in the international arena, including some Asean member states and the dialogue partners. For the past three years, Thailand's presence, weight and leadership have disappeared to the point where our national interests have been affected and our credibility has been minimised. The many qualified and experienced resources in its ranks will give the oldest political party an advantage in restoring Thailand's profile on regional and world stages.

In the post-Asian economic crisis period from 1997-2000, the Democrat-led government under Chuan Leekpai succeeded in disciplining fiscal spending and enforcing good governance that helped to turn the country around. It must be noted here that despite the economic downturn at the time, Thailand enjoyed unprecedented recognition around the world for its strong commitment to human rights, democratic values and freedom of expression.

Obviously, the call for an earlier summit outside Thailand from Asean leaders would be louder if the political uncertainty here is prolonged and the new government is constituted by the same political allies as before.