
Are you confused, or tired, or even afraid to know? Don't worry. You are not alone. We are in this together and we'll go through it together. And after a very sad week, the next few days may turn out to be fun for a change. Key developments will be updated and analysed as soon as they occur, so please check this space regularly.
Dec 3, 9 pm: The ruling politicians who survived the Constitution Court's axe are still pondering simple options: Take advantage of the Suvarnabhumi infamy that put their enemies in bad lights, or go down a catastrophic path of their own by naming Chalerm Yoobamrung as new prime minister.
At this hour, they remain undecided. Some have suggested that maybe the House dissolution is the best solution after all. Chalerm's possible nomination has struck fears into both allies and opponents alike, with the influential Newin Chidchob faction reportedly balking at it like a kid in front of a dentist chair. Moreover, the People's Alliance for Democracy members may miss Government House already.
The next candidate, Mingkwan Sangsuwan, is a far less controversial figure. Better still, he is backed by another influential man close to Thaksin Shinawatra, Yongyuth Tiyapairat. But since Mingkwan doesn't possess enough clout among ruling politicians, it may need to take something as commanding as a message from overseas to get him nominated.
Can House Speaker Chai Chidchob be in contention? Well, his sweet, endearing character cannot hide the glaring fact that he is Newin's father. Again, Chai's nomination can get the PAD's marching song blaring at all city corners.
What about Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva? You just can't stop dreaming, can you? Wishful thinkers envision all coalition partners defecting from the dissolved People Power Party to his side, but did you see Banharn Silapa-archa's tearful, contorted face on Tuesday? If Banharn agreed to back Abhisit after that demonstration of unbearable pain, grief and anger in the wake of his party's dissolution, why doesn't he go for a better option of entering monkhood and take a shot at nirvana?
Yet there are people who insisted that the Chat Thai Party did not earn the nickname "Eel" for nothing. They believe the enigmatic Culture Club song, Karma Chameleon, was written specifically for this Thai political party. These Chat Thai-can-do-anything faithfuls have pointed at a tantalizing statement by the party's only surviving senior member, Sanan Kachornprasart, who said The Eel was still keeping its options open. "We will listen to what the people want," Sanan said, ominiously invoking the doomed party's much-invoked motto.
There have also been talks of Newin leading a defection (again) to back Abhisit. Too far-fetched, of course. But again, that a Newin-backed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is an outrageous political scenario doesn't mean politicians on both sides haven't seriously discussed the possibility.
All in all, if Chalerm rising to the premiership will be considered a travesty, Prime Minister Abhisit backed by remnants of Chat Thai and/or the Newin faction will be a black comedy.
One crucial development to watch is who will be the leader of the recently-registered Puea Thai Party, which has become the new home for many PPP MPs. The party is scheduled to elect its leader and 29-member executive board on Sunday, which could give us strong hints as to who will be nominated the next prime minister when Parliament convenes an urgent session next Monday.
About 80 of 218 MPs from the disbanded ruling party have already completed the process to switch to the Puea Thai banner. Deputy House Speaker Apiwan Wiriyachai, seen as a contender for premiership, is now officially a Puea Thai member. He remained humble on Wednesday, saying Industry Minister Mingkwan was a more suitable candidate for the position of prime minister.
Well, this should be it for Wednesday. Am I missing anyone? Oh yes, political speculation cannot complete without a "dark horse". In this case, it's Transport Minister Santi Prompat. I know, to many of you it's like "Santi who?" Don't be too hard on yourself; it's the third or fourth generation of "nominees" we are talking about here.
Dec 4, 11 am: The government camp still doesn't seem to be in a hurry, with news, or rumours, of lobbying not as intense as initially expected. A key development has been a Newin faction member saying that his group will join Puea Thai. "We don't want to be seen as a factor in the appointment of new prime minister," said Boonjong Wongtrairat. "We just want to play an advisory role." That can mean anything.
House Speaker Chai has warned that a rush to decision (on nominating the prime minister) could refuel political tension that had just decreased a little bit. Veera Musigapong, one of three hosts of the pro-government "Today's Truth" TV programme, has insisted that there is no way government politicians would betray their voters by switching camp to the Democrats. Talks about Newin backing Abhisit have also died down.
Another PM candidate has emerged. It has been reported that coalition partners, the Newin group and MPs of the dissolved PPP are looking together at the possibility of installing Ruamjaithai Chat Pattana leader Gen Chetta Thanajaro. He is less controversial than Chalerm, seems a lot more distant from Thaksin Shinawatra and his military backgrounds give him a bigger clout than Mingkwan. His nomination won't send the PAD back to the streets.
But, and it's a BIG BUT, what will Thaksin say?
Dec 4, 2 pm: It's getting a bit ridiculous now but I should have seen this coming. Snoh Thienthong, yes, you heard it right, has emerged as another candidate. With most big names falling out of the picture because of party dissolutions, this is not such a big shock, though. All remotely familiar names are being explored and more fun may be in store.
Anyway, if you put a gun to my head and ask me to choose between Chalerm and Snoh, my choice is simple. Pull the damned trigger.
Dec 4, 3 pm: Is Newin dragging his feet to raise his stock prices? There have been contradicting reports on exactly how many members of his faction have joined Puea Thai. We believe that about half of the 40-strong faction have registered with the new party.
Some sources said Newin was being careful because whereas the Constitution allows MPs from dissolved parties to find a new home, it is not that clear if they are entitled to joining a brand-new party which has never contested an election and been represented in Parliament.
Meanwhile, Chuan Leekpai's name has finally emerged, albeit just in theory. With Abhisit too controversial because of his associations with the PAD, Chuan looks a sound alternative who could lure coalition partners and some of the Newin faction to the Democrat side. To me, this theory is simply too good to be true.
Dec 4, 4 pm: The Newin faction, or about 30 members of the faction, is reportedly set to announce its decision to join the Poomjai Thai Party, set up as a spare part of the now-dissolved Matchima Thipataya Party.
Meanwhile, the expected trouble has finally materialised. A group of 40 senators has asked the Senate speaker to seek rulings from the Constitution Court on the status of party-list MPs of the People Power Party and status of the caretaker Cabinet.
Constitution writers didn't foresee this problem, apparently. But serious questions are being asked. Can the party list MPs move to a new party, since they became MPs in the first place not on their own but through a proportional representation system? In other words, since voters voted for their dissolved parties, not for them, can they defy the voters' will by joining another party that may not be the preferred choice of some voters? To go to the extreme, should the party list MPs disappear along with the dissolved parties?
The Senate group also wants the court to rule whether Deputy Prime Minister Chaovarat Chanweerakul could become caretaker prime minister since he is not an MP. Also, the status of the Cabinet has been brought into question, as several ministers are PPP party-list MPs.
At this moment, a House dissolution appears a strong possibility.
Dec 4, 5pm: HM the King was represented by the Crown Prince and HRH Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn at the much-anticipated ceremony to thank high-level well-wishers on the eve of his birthday. The royal children told the audience, who had been apparently unaware of the changed agenda, that the king was a bit unwell with fever and sore throat. The Crown Prince and the princess conveyed his gratefulness for the well-wishers and his best wishes for all of them.
Thai people did not expect the monarch's absence either. I can't remember if the King had ever missed giving his birthday speech before. Even if he had, it must be really, really rare. Our newsroom fell silent after the brief statements by the Crown Prince and the princess which lasted less then 10 minutes altogether.
Dec 4, 8.30 pm: We may have to be here for much longer than expected. A royal decree to reconvene the House on Monday has been cancelled, amid doubts about its legality since it was initiated by the Cabinet under premiership of Somchai Wongsawat. And the Cabinet has decided that when to convene the extraordinary House forum to name the new prime minister will be up to MPs themselves, not the government. In other words, the government is saying "It's parliamentary affair now."
So, with the King unwell the political side is unlikely to put forward another request for an extraordinary House session for him to sign in the next few days.
Sorry, but it seems the names of Chalerm, Newin, Snoh and the likes will keep haunting us for the next 10 days, at least. Think of it as a breath of fresh air after months of Sondhi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimuang.
Dec 4, 9.30 pm: The Newin group's newly-released press statement has confirmed its rebellious stand. Basically, the group said it wants to reserve its right not to vote for any controversial figure whose nomination could rekindle political confrontation.
Is this burning a hole in someone's pocket? We shall see, especially if the faction ends up saying either Chalerm or Snoh can bring peace and harmony to Thailand.
Dec 5, 10 am: The Matichon website has reported that there were rumours Thaksin Shinawatra was getting worried and had made some phone calls to Bangkok. There are strong reasons why he should be anxious. The Newin camp, it has been confirmed, is sitting on the fence and refusing to join Puea Thai. Its press statement was clear-cut that the faction would support only a non-controversial PM candidate, which Puea Thai will find it hard, if not impossible, to find from within.
And although the coalition allies met Thursday night and confirmed they would stick together, such commitment was vague at best when choosing the next PM is taken into account. "There won't be a core change," said former PM secretary Chusak Sirinil, meaning the allies won't switch side to the Democrats. "As for selecting the new prime minister, the coalition partners have conveyed their concerns to Puea Thai, asking the party to make a careful selection because there remain many booby-traps in the road ahead and there can be another big problem if the next prime minister is not chosen carefully."
Thaksin reportedly made his phone calls Wednesday evening, following reports that the allies were searching for a non-controversial prime ministerial nominee outside Puea Thai. Matichon quoted senior government insiders as saying that he was desperate to have the allies back a Puea Thai candidate.
Negotiations _ obviously on who gets what if a Puea Thai member is to be nominated _ are to begin shortly. The allies are having an upper-hand (take away the House dissolution card of the Puea Thai camp which doesn't like the option itself) and they must be rubbing their hands enthusiastically.
A total of 155 MPs have joined Puea Thai and 12 others are finalising their documents. The party expect at least 30 more to join in the next two days.
Dec 5, 5 pm: Many newspapers may scream "Deadlock" on their front pages tomorrow. Don't get overly excited. No Thai government has ever been formed without that word gracing the headlines once or twice.
Puea Thai today has threatened House dissolution as coalition partners, Snoh in particular, are getting noisier about the new prime minister having to be acceptable to the public. Yep, he of all the people.
The Newin camp has also reiterated its stand against any controversial nominee, and reports about the faction's secret talks with the Democrats have come back again.
Dec 5, 8 pm: Forgive me for all the "rumours". You will see this word with increasing frequency in this live update. There are two main reasons for it: The politicians are spreading all kind of stories that could benefit their bargaining and journalists like me need to protect ourselves. If the "rumours" turn out to be right, credit to us. If not, you know who to blame.
Will Thaksin's ex-wife Pojaman be arriving in Thailand at 10 pm? Nobody can confirm that, even the sources in the defunct PPP who leaked the story were not 100 per cent sure. We should know soon, however, so stay tuned to our website.
Another "good one" is the Thaksin-Newin break-up. The faction has been reported today to be trying to draw more MPs to its side. The group is boasting 37 MPs who are ready to go "independent" when the House of Representatives vote to elect the new prime minister, but claiming that as many as 13 others will join it. The rumours have it that Thaksin, whose leg Newin tearfully clung to like a toddler on first day at school when the former leader vacated Govenrment House just before the 2006 coup, was upset. He allegedly tried to summon Newin but the latter refused to leave the country.
Dec 5,10.30 pm: Pojaman must have landed or she will definitely be landing any minute now, a mini irony as she is one of the first passengers to land at Suvarnabhumi after its reopening.
Among the first questions: Will she be arrested? The only arrest warrant against her, in her capacity as a defendant in the Ratchadapisek land case, has been cancelled after she was acquitted. She was sentenced to jail in a seperate case of tax evasion, but she is still technically in the process of appeal.
Why is she back? Look what Snoh and the Newin group have to say now about the next prime minister and we shall know the answer. Unlike her husband, Pojaman has never spoken politics in public. In fact, I have never seen her speak anything in public. But she is known to be very effective when it comes to backdoor arrangements.
Get ready for renewed talks about Chalerm and Mingkwan as the new PM. As for Chuan and Abhisit, it's back to "so near yet so far" once again.
Dec 6, 10 am: Pojaman is quiet. The Newin group is quiet. The Democrats are quiet. The Puea Thai Party is quiet. Smaller coalition partners are quiet. By "quiet" I mean they are not talking to the media or having nothing new to say. But at times like this, important things usually happen behind the scenes.
Thaksin's spokesman Pongthep Thepkanchana said Pojaman came back to visit her ailing mother. Speculation that she returned to settle things with Newin has been predictably denied. Her house is quiet. Nobody's getting out. Nobody's coming in. There are such things as cell phones, though.
Dec 6, 4 pm: Sorry for my own long silence. The deceptive calm is set to be shattered in the next hour or so. Reports and, ahem, rumours are flooding in at the moment, revolving around the initially scorned scenario of the Democrats serving as the new core of the next government.
The Democrats' "press conference" on the formation of the next government was said to have been scheduled at 5 pm. Shortly after this news reached the press, the Puea Thai side claimed it would have a media conference of its own before that.
Who's the real deal? We shall know soon. Please stay tuned.
Dec 6, 4.20 pm: Democrat sources claim the party now has a commitment of approximate 240 MPs, considerably exceeding the simple majority mark of 224 MPs. The news has come from nowhere as there were no visible talks between the Democrats and the coalition partners over the past two days.
Looking at the reaction from the Puea Thai Party and you feel the Democrat claims have rattled the ruling politicians. "I don't believe the coalition partners will be doing that, especially just a day after pledging their support for us," said Nong Khai MP Pongpan Sunthornchai. "Have Chat Thai and Machima Thipataya MPs forgotten already why their parties were dissolved in the first place?"
Well, we can look at it two ways. Perhaps MPs from both parties "remember" too well why their parties were dissolved in the first place.
A big humble pie awaits me if Abhisit or Chuan is the next prime minister. My no-nonsense dismissal of their chances must have found its way into news groups or web blogs all across the globe.
Dec 6, 4.45 pm: Well, the humble pie is still hanging in the balance. Latest reports from the Democrat camp itself said the 5 pm press conference is now in doubt. Reasons given were Chat Thai playing hard to get. Senior Chat Thai adviser Sanan Kachornprasart, predictabaly, has emerged as a PM contender. There have also been reports that Snoh _ who somehow is still convinced that he is an influential factor _ remains adamant that he wants neither Abhisit or a Puea Thai candidate.
Dec 6, 5 pm: Only some junior Democrats have shown up at the Sukhothai Hotel where the Democrat press conference is scheduled to take place. None of them can give useful information to reporters. The MPs basically know as much as you and me.
However, there is one interesting arrival. Manit Nop-amornbordi from the defunct Machima Thipataya Party told reporters he represented about 10 members of his former party to support the Democrats as the core of the next government.
The press conference has not been officially cancelled. Whatever is going on behind the scenes must be very hectic.
Dec 6, 5.30 pm: It seems the Democrats are being stood up at the Sukhothai Hotel. To be exact, the reporters are being stood up by the Democrats at the hotel. Nobody important has arrived.
On the other side, the Puea Thai Party's headquarters has seen senior members of Puea Paendin and Pracharaj parties arriving. No official announcement has been made, though.
Maybe I have watched too many movies, but in my head I'm seeing Thai politicians sitting in front of laptop computers watching obscene amounts of money going in all directions in frantic wired transfers.
Dec 6, 6.30 pm: I was about to change the headline to "Loosen your seatbelt" when Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban told reporters "It's still on. We are the real deal."
Talks are still ongoing, he said. Suthep's confidence is based on the Newin faction still leaning toward the Democrats. The Democrats, as of now, seems to still have Ruamjaithai Chat Pattana under their wing. Puea Paendin is allegedly split, torn between both camps. And Pracharaj seems firmly with Puea Thai.
For now, the fight for Chat Thai votes will be fierce. Sanan's stocks are rising. But actually, with every vote more important than before, everyone's stocks are rising.
Dec 6, 6.45 pm:Urgent, Suthep announces the Democrat Party will form a new government with former Chat Thai MPs, Newin faction members, Ruamjai Thai Chat Pattana, Puea Paendin and Matchima Thipataya parties.
Top representative from Chat Thai, Sanan, is at the press conference, along with leaders of the all mentioned camps.
The humble pie, that is.
Dec 6, 7.10 pm: After taking many deep breaths, it has occurred to me that the party dissolutions mean it won't be that easy for the Democrats. The Sukhothai Hotel press conference looked credible enough, but we have to take into account the fact that Sanan was representing a dissolved Chat Thai, whose MPs are free to go anywhere. The same goes for the defunct Matchima Thiptaya Party.
Snoh is with Puea Thai and Puea Thai souces claimed Chat Thai leader Banharn remained committed with them.
With Puea Thai having 190 MPs at the moment, all it takes is like 35 more MPs to at least create a deadlock. Every vote counts now. I'm keeping the humble pie ready but not eating it yet.
Well, and the thought of Newin being a new kingmaker......
Dec 6, 8 pm: Details of today's behind-the-scenes drama have begun to trickle in. It was said that Pojaman might have returned to Thailand a bit too late, because by the time of her arrival, Sanan's secret talks with the Democrats had already made much progress.
Sanan, according to sources, had been given a greenlight by ex-Chat Thai leader Banharn to decide the dissolved party's future. (What a big irony if you remember the fierce rivalry between the two men when Sanan was secretary-general of the Democrat Party).
The Democrats were confident until their planned press conference was announced early in the afternoon, triggering a hectic response from the Puea Thai Party. Puea Thai senior members, probably acting under instructions of Pojaman, frantically tried to contact Sanan and gave him a BIG offer. After days of insisting that the new prime minister must be someone from Puea Thai, now Sanan was reportedly told by Sompong Amornwiwat that he (Sanan) could take the chief executive post. (Hence the breif rumours in the afternoon that Sanan was the latest prime ministerial candidate)
That proved to be too late, though apparently it managed to throw the Democrats into disarray for a while. Torn between the great Puea Thai offer and fears that he could end up like Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat and his government could be short-lived, Sanan chose to back his former rival Abhisit as the new prime minister.
The Democrats claim they now command 250-260 MPs. The biggest question now is whether the proclaimed numbers are secured.
Dec 6, 8.40 pm: It's not over yet. Puea Thai is reportedly trying to tear as many Newin faction members from the Democrat alliance as possible. As I have mentioned before, the party dissolutions have created some sort of a free-for-all situation, and in cutthroat politics like this you are naturally tempted to make yourself available for the highest bidder.
And we are having by-elections coming for 29 seats in the House. What if Puea Thai sweep that?
Dec 6, 9.10 pm: Puea Thai is said to have launched one of the fiercest lobbyings Thai politics has ever seen. The "homeless" MPs whose groups have pledged allegiance with the Democrats are getting phone calls and everyone who matters on the Puea Thai side is being mobilized to make it happen.
They are even having Plan B and Plan C in store. Sources said if Puea Thai couldn't lure enough MPs to its side, acting prime minister Chavarat Charnveerakul could be instructed to dissolve the House. Problem is Chavarat's close connection with Newin may prove a major obstacle.
Plan C is for red-shirt protesters to do a PAD. It will be quite a sight if Parliament is swarmed by demonstrators in red hellbent on obstructing election of the new prime minister.
Dec 7, 1 am: Yes, I was watching Liverpool on TV, but No, nothing important that we know of has happened on the Thai political front. The intense lobbying must have been continuing but I guess we will know nothing until tomorrow.
A lot of thanks for your emails that feel like a year-end bonus. I mean it. Nothing makes a journalist happier than the sort of feedbacks you guys gave me.
Kevin, it's still hard at the moment to know exactly how many MPs from each of the previously pro-government groups are defecting to the Democrats. All we know are proclaimed numbers provided by the Democrats. They say the alliance is made of 166 Democrat MPs, 15 Chat Thai MPs, 10 Machima Thipataya MPs, 22 Puea Paendin MPs and 37 Newin faction MPs.
The Democrats also claim 12 more, mostly from the dissolved PPP, could also join them.
Tomorrow it can be either clearer or messier.
David, I hope your cold dinner still tasted good. You really deserve that for your e-mail. Rupert, "Old Farang", Kenneth, thank you all.
Dec 7, 1.30 am: Gossip time. We have assessed the following information, compared notes with some other news websites, and decided that we should share it with you. Please bear in mind, however, that this is the time when half-truth or lies are usually told by politicians, be it the most rigtheous or shameless ones.
Gossip One: Newin has told Suthep: "Thaksin no longer trusts me. That makes it difficult to stay with the other side."
Gossip Two: Thaksin was one of those who called Sanan to offer him the premiership. The others include ex-PM Somchai Wongsawat and Sudarat Keyuraphan.
Gossip Three: Key members of the Democrat-led alliance went to meet Army chief Anupong Paochinda at his Army reception home before the press conference.
Gossip Four: Newin's initial condition was that Chuan had to be prime minister. Suthep talked him out of that by citing Chuan's rigid principles when it comes to naming Cabinet ministers. Abhisit was much more flexible, Newin was told.
Gossip Five: Newin's faction was not as united as we believed, and up to 17 (out of 37) may remain "up for grab".
Dec 7, 1 pm: "Newin backing Abhisit as PM. Should we laugh or cry?" A reader texted me. Well, we can laugh until our tears run dry. Seriously though, it's not quite over yet. The Democrats are having an executive board meeting at 2 pm and the Chuan-Abhisit issue is expected to be discussed. As we have heard, the Newin faction is still gritting its teeth over Abhisit, making many faction members "vulnerable" to the sugar daddy on the other side.
This morning the Puea Thai Party has voted to elect Youngyuth Wichaidit as its new leader. The decision, reportedly a change of heart by ex-prime minister Somchai Wongsawat and his wife Yaowapa, reportedly puzzled favourite candidate Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's sister, for a while but she finally came to term with it.
Yongyuth is an OK man but with no premiership materials. The party also appointed an executive board that comprises totally low-profile and non-MP figures. The motives are evident: When/if another party dissolution storm brews, no big names will be affected. This, I'm afraid, will be an established formula for most parties in the future when it comes to appointing their executives. Funny, isn't it? Just when we are trying to get rid of "nominees" now it will be hard to walk into Parliament and not bump into someone who isn't some nominee's nominee.
From what we have heard, the Puea Thai Party is still putting up a fight. I think it will go down to the wire and unless a royal command is handed down approving the nomination of Abhisit or Chuan, the Democrats can never be sure. According to Suthep, the Puea Thai camp is making a very sweet offer: If you come to us with 5 MPs, you'll get one Cabinet post.
Knowing Thai politicians, many jaws must have hit the floor and a lot of hush-hush meetings may be already taking place.
Note: From here on, Puea Thai will be spelt "Phue Thai" according to its registration documents.
Dec 7, 3.30 pm: From Greg Love (Hua Hin): "Will the Democrats go about appointing ministers with so many factions to please, and still have enough left to please their own loyal members? I mean this is Thailand, and I would imagine the rats leaving their sinking ships still have a price......or is maybe a truly new generation arising???"
If the Democrats survive the Pheu Thai Party's last-minute do-or-die onslaught, and if the threats of the "Red Army" besieging Parliament do not materialise, the real hard part will begin. But with their own party still intact, I mean never been "diluted" by court dissolution orders, the Democrats will be able to find enough credible names under their quota to fill the Cabinet. Of course, you will see names from the other camps that may make you shake your head, but as far as human resources go, the Democrats have a good advantage compared with their Pheu Thai rivals.
But what do we have here _ rats jumping ships or a new brave generation coming of age? Well, let's say this new generation of rats are quite brave to leave their ships like that.
The Democrats' real advantage, however, will be the lack of pressure to amend the Constitution. The Samak and Somchai governments fell simply because constitutional amendments became their agenda, something that either provoked or played into the hands of the PAD.
A Democrat government will likely face a different kind of street pressure, though. How far the red-shirt movement will go to bring it down will remain to be seen, however.
"Today's Truth" TV programme hosts have held another mobile forum, in which they condemned the "new form of coup" and Anupong in particular. The three hosts _ Veera Musigapong, Jatuporn Prompan and Nattawut Saikua _ did not make an explicit call for a red-shirt uprising but they did repeatedly say what was happening on the political scene was "unacceptable." Thaksin's planned phone-in on Dec 13 is apparently still on and he is set to "say it all", according to the TV hosts.
Dec 7, 6.30 pm: Abhisit has made his first public statement since becoming the front-runner for premiership. The fact that he had spoken out about it is more important than his expected national-unity-is-my-agenda message. He would not have gone public with any agenda if he had not been confident of support right now.
Abhisit said his government would strive to bring back national harmony, restore the country's image and repair damage caused to tourism by the political showdown. Asked if he was worried that the political conflicts would make his government shortlived like the last two administrations, he said how long his government stays depends mainly on its perfomance.
"You can look at it two ways. On one hand, this is a time of crisis which makes it very difficult for all of us. On the other hand, it will force us to really work and devote ourselves and listen to what society has to say at the same time," Abhisit said.
I never doubt his oratory skills, be it on a big stage or in a mini group interview. I think few do. His real challenge, obviously, is how to act, mobilize, implement and execute as the chief executive of a deeply-divided nation still in reeling and in turmoil. Most of all, how he can reinvent himself as a remotely neutral leader after having been dragged to much to one side of the conflict may have to be the first priority on his agenda.
Dec 7, 10 pm: "At which point do you believe we will actually get real clarity as to whom is to govern, and do you think they will have the mandate from the public to do so successfully?" asks Michael Brear.
When the prime minister is sworn in. No kidding here, Mike. The Democrats are not certain themselves. Rumours about some members of the Newin camp are to be "priced out" of the alliance are continuous. And even though Sanan has pledged to support the Democrats, there is no guarantee all MPs of the defunct Chat Thai Party would follow him. This is why Abhisit and Suthep will pay a courtesy call on Banharn tomorrow to make an earnest plea for his support.
You also mentioned a UN-observed new election in the future. I can't laugh at that. Believe it or not, I wrote an article a year and a half ago joking that the PAD will become a fortress of militants with gun-totting guards searching visitors. What do we know?
Now from Jeremy: "Please enlighten me: all this reporting of Newin siding with the Democrats, Newin changing his mind, Newin this and Newin that - has everyone forgotten that he was banned from politics? Doesn't that ban carry any weight? Can't he be taken to task from being so blatantly involved with political manoevouring? I simply do not understand"
Welcome to the club, buddy.
Dec 8, 11.30 am: A quick wrap-up for you. The Democrats now want the House to convene the extra session ASAP because the Pheu Thai manoeuvring to unsettle the alliance is getting more intense by the minute. A motion to convene the House session, remember, has to be approved by the King.
Acting PM Chavarat has apparently dismissed a House dissolution, saying he has been told, or warned, that it could only prolong the crisis. Moreover, he admitted that he was not even sure he had the power to dissolve the House.
The Democrats surely don't want this to drag on. Rumours have it the Newin faction is in danger of a break-up. The Pheu Thai Party now is claiming about 202 MPs. All it takes is some 25 more and we are back to the stalemate.
I will be back in the afternoon. Please stay tuned. You can also follow major breaking news on the breaking news section of our website.
Dec 8, 3 pm: The Democrat motion to convene a special House session has been submitted. The Pheu Thai Party is also planning to submit a similar motion of its own. House Speaker Chai said it would take about three days to check the signatures before the Democrat motion can be presented to HM the King.
As of now, the House session may take place as late as next week. It promises to be a very long, anxious wait for Abhisit. Our latest information has it that only 21 Newin faction MPs remain committed to the Democrat alliance.
Dec 8, 3.30 pm: While we are waiting for new major developments, here are some Abhisit fun facts:
...Former finance minister Tarrin Nimanahaeminda, who was always reported to be at odds with Abhisit at the Democrat Party, once described his young party colleague as having an "exceptional mind".
....That "exceptional mind" once put his ATM code near his ATM card, and a house maid reportedly exploited them big time.
....He's addicted to iPod. His carries like 8,000 songs.
....His whole family doesn't eat breakfast.
....If you aren't his close relative, never expect to enter his house. He never invites anyone, using the same old "It's so messy" excuse.
....He wakes up very early, and loves to drive his kids to school.
Dec 8, 4.30 pm: Chalerm has finally come out and quickly made up for his unusal silence over the past few days. "He who laughs last laughs the loudest," he said. According to him, the Democrats must be quaking in their boots now after several members of the Newin faction have refused to jump on the Abhisit bandwagon. In my humble opinion, whether the Newin faction speculation is true or false, Chalerm will do the Pheu Thai Party a whole world of good if he keeps his mouth shut. I mean, what's the use of reminding anyone that he's a challenger for the PM post on the Pheu Thai side?
To add to the Democrats' anxiety, rumours have it that the PAD may not be totally happy with what's going on, or with being practically left out to be precise. Some pro-PAD and anti-Democrat articles have emerged. And a very weird conspiracy theory has been leaked from the PAD alleging there's a possibility of a Thaksin-Demcorat secret handshake. The Manager website is at the moment highlighting calls for both camps to "stall" efforts to form a new government until all legal questions related to the three parties' dissolution are cleared.
Dec 8, 6 pm: We have just had our last news meeting of the day and the Abhisit-is-sure-bet sentiment has become anything but. Although he and Suthep gave lovely flowers to Banharn, the latter didn't return the favour by pledging his full support for a Democrat government. Or maybe Banharn has simply lost control of the MPs leaving his dissolved party in all directions.
The mind game is continuing, with the Pheu Thai camp being the one making louder noises. To compound the Democrats' worries, questions have resurfaced regarding the party list MPs' status, causing doubts about whether a House forum with them participating will be legitimate. And worse, House speaker Chai is one of the party list MP.
If we have to wait for the Constitution Court to rule on the party list issue before the House can elect the new PM, the alleged on-going bidding war may reach insane proportions. X'mas must have come early for many of our MPs.