Pojaman's return and Newin's revolt

Are you confused, or tired, or even afraid to know? Don't worry. You are not alone. We are in this together and we'll go through it together. And after a very sad week, the next few days may turn out to be fun for a change. Key developments will be updated and analysed as soon as they occur, so please check this space regularly.

Dec 3, 9 pm: The ruling politicians who survived the Constitution Court's axe are still pondering simple options: Take advantage of the Suvarnabhumi infamy that put their enemies in bad lights, or go down a catastrophic path of their own by naming Chalerm Yoobamrung as new prime minister.

At this hour, they remain undecided. Some have suggested that maybe the House dissolution is the best solution after all. Chalerm's possible nomination has struck fears into both allies and opponents alike, with the influential Newin Chidchob faction reportedly balking at it like a kid in front of a dentist chair. Moreover, the People's Alliance for Democracy members may miss Government House already.

The next candidate, Mingkwan Sangsuwan, is a far less controversial figure. Better still, he is backed by another influential man close to Thaksin Shinawatra, Yongyuth Tiyapairat. But since Mingkwan doesn't possess enough clout among ruling politicians, it may need to take something as commanding as a message from overseas to get him nominated.

Can House Speaker Chai Chidchob be in contention? Well, his sweet, endearing character cannot hide the glaring fact that he is Newin's father. Again, Chai's nomination can get the PAD's marching song blaring at all city corners.

What about Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva? You just can't stop dreaming, can you? Wishful thinkers envision all coalition partners defecting from the dissolved People Power Party to his side, but did you see Banharn Silapa-archa's tearful, contorted face on Tuesday? If Banharn agreed to back Abhisit after that demonstration of unbearable pain, grief and anger in the wake of his party's dissolution, why doesn't he go for a better option of entering monkhood and take a shot at nirvana?

Yet there are people who insisted that the Chat Thai Party did not earn the nickname "Eel" for nothing. They believe the enigmatic Culture Club song, Karma Chameleon, was written specifically for this Thai political party.  These Chat Thai-can-do-anything faithfuls have pointed at a tantalizing statement by the party's only surviving senior member, Sanan Kachornprasart, who said The Eel was still keeping its options open. "We will listen to what the people want," Sanan said, ominiously invoking the doomed party's much-invoked motto.

There have also been talks of Newin leading a defection (again) to back Abhisit.  Too far-fetched, of course. But again, that a Newin-backed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is an outrageous political scenario doesn't mean politicians on both sides haven't seriously discussed the possibility.

All in all, if Chalerm rising to the premiership will be considered a travesty, Prime Minister Abhisit backed by remnants of Chat Thai and/or the Newin faction will be a black comedy.

One crucial development to watch is who will be the leader of the recently-registered Puea Thai Party, which has become the new home for many PPP MPs. The party is scheduled to elect its leader and 29-member executive board on Sunday, which could give us strong hints as to who will be nominated the next prime minister when Parliament convenes an urgent session next Monday.

About 80 of 218 MPs from the disbanded ruling party have already completed the process to switch to the Puea Thai banner. Deputy House Speaker Apiwan Wiriyachai, seen as a contender for premiership, is now officially a Puea Thai member. He remained humble on Wednesday, saying Industry Minister Mingkwan was a more suitable candidate for the position of prime minister.

Well, this should be it for Wednesday. Am I missing anyone? Oh yes, political speculation cannot complete without a "dark horse". In this case, it's Transport Minister Santi Prompat. I know, to many of you it's like "Santi who?" Don't be too hard on yourself; it's the third or fourth generation of "nominees" we are talking about here.  

Dec 4, 11 am: The government camp still doesn't seem to be in a hurry, with news, or rumours, of lobbying not as intense as initially expected. A key development has been a Newin faction member saying that his group will join Puea Thai. "We don't want to be seen as a factor in the appointment of new prime minister," said Boonjong Wongtrairat. "We just want to play an advisory role." That can mean anything.

House Speaker Chai has warned that a rush to decision (on nominating the prime minister) could refuel political tension that had just decreased a little bit. Veera Musigapong, one of three hosts of the pro-government "Today's Truth" TV programme, has insisted that there is no way government politicians would betray their voters by switching camp to the Democrats. Talks about Newin backing Abhisit have also died down.

Another PM candidate has emerged. It has been reported that coalition partners, the Newin group and MPs of the dissolved PPP are looking together at the possibility of installing Ruamjaithai Chat Pattana leader Gen Chetta Thanajaro. He is less controversial than Chalerm, seems a lot more distant from Thaksin Shinawatra and his military backgrounds give him a bigger clout than Mingkwan. His nomination won't send the PAD back to the streets.

But, and it's a BIG BUT, what will Thaksin say?

Dec 4, 2 pm: It's getting a bit ridiculous now but I should have seen this coming. Snoh Thienthong, yes, you heard it right, has emerged as another candidate. With most big names falling out of the picture because of party dissolutions, this is not such a big shock, though. All remotely familiar names are being explored and more fun may be in store.

Anyway, if you put a gun to my head and ask me to choose between Chalerm and Snoh, my choice is simple. Pull the damned trigger.

Dec 4, 3 pm: Is Newin dragging his feet to raise his stock prices? There have been contradicting reports on exactly how many members of his faction have joined Puea Thai. We believe that about half of the 40-strong faction have registered with the new party.

Some sources said Newin was being careful because whereas the Constitution allows MPs from dissolved parties to find a new home, it is not that clear if they are entitled to joining a brand-new party which has never contested an election and been represented in Parliament.

Meanwhile, Chuan Leekpai's name has finally emerged, albeit just in theory. With Abhisit too controversial because of his associations with the PAD, Chuan looks a sound alternative who could lure coalition partners and some of the Newin faction to the Democrat side. To me, this theory is simply too good to be true.

Dec 4, 4 pm:  The Newin faction, or about 30 members of the faction, is reportedly set to announce its decision to join the Poomjai Thai Party, set up as a spare part of the now-dissolved Matchima Thipataya Party.

Meanwhile, the expected trouble has finally materialised. A group of 40 senators has asked the Senate speaker to seek rulings from the Constitution Court on the status of party-list MPs of the People Power Party and status of the caretaker Cabinet.

Constitution writers didn't foresee this problem, apparently. But serious questions are being asked. Can the party list MPs move to a new party, since they became MPs in the first place not on their own but through a proportional representation system? In other words, since voters voted for their dissolved parties, not for them, can they defy the voters' will by joining another party that may not be the preferred choice of some voters? To go to the extreme, should the party list MPs disappear along with the dissolved parties?

The Senate group also wants the court to rule whether Deputy Prime Minister Chaovarat Chanweerakul could become caretaker prime minister since he is not an MP. Also, the status of the Cabinet has been brought into question, as several ministers are PPP party-list MPs.

At this moment, a House dissolution appears a strong possibility.

Dec 4, 5pm: HM the King was represented by the Crown Prince and HRH Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn at the much-anticipated ceremony to thank high-level well-wishers on the eve of his birthday. The royal children told the audience, who had been apparently unaware of the changed agenda, that the king was a bit unwell with fever and sore throat. The Crown Prince and the princess conveyed his gratefulness for the well-wishers and his best wishes for all of them.

Thai people did not expect the monarch's absence either. I can't remember if the King had ever missed giving his birthday speech before. Even if he had, it must be really, really rare. Our newsroom fell silent after the brief statements by the Crown Prince and the princess which lasted less then 10 minutes altogether.

Dec 4, 8.30 pm: We may have to be here for much longer than expected. A royal decree to reconvene the House on Monday has been cancelled, amid doubts about its legality since it was initiated by the Cabinet under premiership of Somchai Wongsawat. And the Cabinet has decided that when to convene the extraordinary House forum to name the new prime minister will be up to MPs themselves, not the government. In other words, the government is saying "It's parliamentary affair now."

So, with the King unwell the political side is unlikely to put forward another request for an extraordinary House session for him to sign in the next few days.

Sorry, but it seems the names of Chalerm, Newin, Snoh and the likes will keep haunting us for the next 10 days, at least. Think of it as a breath of fresh air after months of Sondhi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimuang.

Dec 4, 9.30 pm: The Newin group's newly-released press statement has confirmed its rebellious stand. Basically, the group said it wants to reserve its right not to vote for any controversial figure whose nomination could rekindle political confrontation.

Is this burning a hole in someone's pocket? We shall see, especially if the faction ends up saying either Chalerm or Snoh can bring peace and harmony to Thailand.

Dec 5, 10 am: The Matichon website has reported that there were rumours Thaksin Shinawatra was getting worried and had made some phone calls to Bangkok. There are strong reasons why he should be anxious. The Newin camp, it has been confirmed, is sitting on the fence and refusing to join Puea Thai. Its press statement was clear-cut that the faction would support only a non-controversial PM candidate, which Puea Thai will find it hard, if not impossible, to find from within.

And although the coalition allies met Thursday night and confirmed they would stick together, such commitment was vague at best when choosing the next PM is taken into account. "There won't be a core change," said former PM secretary Chusak Sirinil, meaning the allies won't switch side to the Democrats. "As for selecting the new prime minister, the coalition partners have conveyed their concerns to Puea Thai, asking the party to make a careful selection because there remain many booby-traps in the road ahead and there can be another big problem if the next prime minister is not chosen carefully."

Thaksin reportedly made his phone calls Wednesday evening, following reports that the allies were searching for a non-controversial prime ministerial nominee outside Puea Thai. Matichon quoted senior government insiders as saying that he was desperate to have the allies back a Puea Thai candidate.

Negotiations _ obviously on who gets what if a Puea Thai member is to be nominated _ are to begin shortly. The allies are having an upper-hand (take away the House dissolution card of the Puea Thai camp which doesn't like the option itself) and they must be rubbing their hands enthusiastically.

A total of 155 MPs have joined Puea Thai and 12 others are finalising their documents. The party expect at least 30 more to join in the next two days.

Dec 5, 5 pm: Many newspapers may scream "Deadlock" on their front pages tomorrow. Don't get overly excited. No Thai government has ever been formed without that word gracing the headlines once or twice.

Puea Thai today has threatened House dissolution as coalition partners, Snoh in particular, are getting noisier about the new prime minister having to be acceptable to the public. Yep, he of all the people.

The Newin camp has also reiterated its stand against any controversial nominee, and reports about the faction's secret talks with the Democrats have come back again.

Dec 5, 8 pm: Forgive me for all the "rumours". You will see this word with increasing frequency in this live update. There are two main reasons for it: The politicians are spreading all kind of stories that could benefit their bargaining and journalists like me need to protect ourselves. If the "rumours" turn out to be right, credit to us. If not, you know who to blame.

Will Thaksin's ex-wife Pojaman be arriving in Thailand at 10 pm? Nobody can confirm that, even the sources in the defunct PPP who leaked the story were not 100 per cent sure. We should know soon, however, so stay tuned to our website.

Another "good one" is the Thaksin-Newin break-up. The faction has been reported today to be trying to draw more MPs to its side. The group is boasting 37 MPs who are ready to go "independent" when the House of Representatives vote to elect the new prime minister, but claiming that as many as 13 others will join it. The rumours have it that Thaksin, whose leg Newin tearfully clung to like a toddler on first day at school when the former leader vacated Govenrment House just before the 2006 coup, was upset. He allegedly tried to summon Newin but the latter refused to leave the country.

Dec 5,10.30 pm: Pojaman must have landed or she will definitely be landing any minute now, a mini irony as she is one of the first passengers to land at Suvarnabhumi after its reopening.

Among the first questions: Will she be arrested? The only arrest warrant against her, in her capacity as a defendant in the Ratchadapisek land case, has been cancelled after she was acquitted. She was sentenced to jail in a seperate case of tax evasion, but she is still technically in the process of appeal.

Why is she back? Look what Snoh and the Newin group have to say now about the next prime minister and we shall know the answer. Unlike her husband, Pojaman has never spoken politics in public. In fact, I have never seen her speak anything in public. But she is known to be very effective when it comes to backdoor arrangements.

Get ready for renewed talks about Chalerm and Mingkwan as the new PM.  As for Chuan and Abhisit, it's back to "so near yet so far" once again.