Anupong, man in the middle, holds the trump card

Although it has given the PAD undivided attention and a chokehold to topple Prime Minister Somchai, the airport seizure is unpopular and inflicts untold damage on the country.

After PAD-led protesters took control of the airport at 9.00 pm on Tuesday night, frantic negotiations have been inconclusive.

The government is applying strong pressure on Army chief General Anupong Paochinda to intervene and clear protesters from the airport. It wants to invoke the security law empowering Anupong to take charge of the crowd dispersal.

After his emissaries failed to sway Anupong, Somchai has reportedly requested a meeting with the general upon his return from the Apec Summit in Peru.

The PAD too wants Anupong to intervene but for an entirely different reason. It is trying to convince him to either stage a coup or to throw his support to the opposition movement.

The government and the PAD both see Anupong as holding the trump card in deciding the outcome of their fight.

Somchai's return was scheduled for about 5.00 pm last night. Three hours before, Anupong braced for his crucial talks by chairing a high-level meeting with academics and civil servants.

As the prime minister's plane was about to touch down at the air force base, Anupong held a press conference to outline his dual proposal for the government to dissolve the House and for the PAD to halt its protests completely.

A snap election would allow a fresh start for the country and the rival camps would have an opportunity to move beyond their animosity.

In the event the government decides to cling to office, it will likely face a boycott in the form of civil disobedience by the bureaucrats. And the PAD will likewise be punished by social sanctions if it refuses to end its opposition movement.

Anupong has made it clear he would not side with either rival camp. And it goes without saying he will not intervene in the airport seizure. This is in line with his steadfast refusal to get involved to favour the government. His stand means that Somchai is being left alone to decide his fate and the survival of his government.

It is understandable Somchai might have felt being let down by his Army chief. The prime minister flew direct to Chiang Mai without disembarking his plane at the capital. He needs time and privacy to map out his response.

Since Tuesday night, the People Power Party has been working hard to replace Anupong. But it is making no headway. There is no shortage of ambitious generals willing to serve as a government lackey. But the crucial question is whether it is possible to replace Anupong's leadership and redirect the Army at short notice.

This leads to a dire scenario for Somchai. He may have no choice but to step down either by resigning or calling a snap election.

If the prime minister decides to cling to office regardless of the consequences, then it is possible the Democrats will resign their House seats en masse in order to force a House dissolution.

The ruling party is in a dilemma. It has a limited pool of candidates to succeed Somchai. Its invincibility at the elections has been steadily declining in a number of constituencies in the lower North and the Central Region.

It must face so many uncertainties relating to the party dissolution case if a snap election is called at this juncture. Candidates would need to be picked for the People Power banner and the spare party of Puea Thai. This would certainly confuse voters.

Somchai and his People Power Party are obligated to play a high stake game to ensure survival as Anupong has shown his trump card which can change the face of Thai politics.