Returning Thaksin's money to end stalemate worth considering

Soon after the military coup in 2006, the authorities moved swiftly to freeze about Bt76 billion of Thaksin's proceeds from the sale of Shin Corp to Temasek Holdings of Singapore on allegations that he was "unusually rich". The Supreme Court will next month hold a hearing into the unusually rich case against Thaksin, who is alleged to have engaged in a series of policy corruption to boost the share value of Shin Corp. If he were to be found guilty, the government would confiscate part or all of the Bt76 billion.

One of the reasons Thaksin was deposed in 2006 was because he sold Shin Corp without paying tax. When Thaksin came to office in 2001, the market value of his family's holdings in Shin Corp was around Bt25 billion. In January 2006, he sold the family's stake to Temasek for Bt73 billion.

But will Thaksin keep his promise to stay away from politics? His political opponents do not trust him at all because his deeds do not match his words. They have frozen his money in order to curb the flow of the money into political activities that could support his return to power. Thaksin wants his Bt76 billion back badly because it is a sizeable chunk of his wealth.

Yet out of the blue, while he was living in exile in London, Thaksin found more than £60 million (Bt3.14 billion) to purchase the Manchester City Football Club. Thaksin had never declared that he had any foreign assets, even one dollar. The source of his foreign assets remains a mystery. Later Thaksin sold Manchester City for twice the value. He also made substantial investment to boost the football club.

 At the moment, there is a complete lack of trust between Thaksin, who is now believed to be in Dubai, and his political opponents at home. If Thaksin is regarded a chronic problem, he will have to be dealt with one way or another. Otherwise, his phone-in sessions can rock the stability of the country endlessly.

But who is going to be a broker for a truce? Without a compromise, further clashes are looming. Thaksin still holds clout by his persistence and his daring to go for broke.

The party dissolution cases against People Power, Chat Thai and Matchima Thipatai are proceeding in the court. Judging by the precedent cases, these parties, which form the core of the Somchai government, might be dissolved by the later part of December. After the verdict, there could be more political turmoil. At the same time, Somchai might opt to dissolve Parliament and call a snap election. This would give time for the MPs to look for a new party to fulfil the constitutional requirements.

A military coup is ruled out for now. But there might be a political accident that could pave the way for a switch of alliances in the coalition government.

Upon learning that the UK had revoke his visa, Thaksin fumed earlier this week "they have pushed me to a corner". He immediately hit back by vowing to name his political enemies.

Thaksin might be rushing to judgement about the UK decision to revoke his and his wife's, Khunying Pojaman's, visas. The Somchai government, over which he still exerts influence, is in power. The Foreign Ministry is under Minister Sompong Amornwiwat, a Thaksin loyalist. The public prosecutors, working on the extradition case, are also tilting toward Thaksin now. In effect, there have been no government-to-government contacts to influence the UK's decision, which went against Thaksin.

For Thailand to emerge from the political crisis next year, Thaksin will have to be dealt with in one way or another - possibly by giving back his frozen money and letting him live in exile. Secondly, the yellow-shirted people under the People's Alliance of Democracy must disperse and should no more show any force in politics because it has also contributed to the polarisation of Thai policies. Thirdly, the red-shirted supporters of Thaksin and their organisers must also disperse to effectively end the confrontation and polarisation.

Then, and only then, a new leader who pledges to move the country forward in the same style as Barack Obama will have to be allowed to do the job. This reconciliation process requires painful sacrifice by all. Otherwise, we'll continue to sink into the depth of the political abyss amid the storm of the global economic depression.