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It doesn't take a pundit to read the signs. Actually, Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat's Cabinet line-up sent out messages that were as naked as could be. First we received confirmation that the serious rifts within the People Power Party were very real and had threatened the stability of the new government from Day One. The rise of Yongyuth Tiyapairat's faction was also made clear, along with the downturn in the fortunes of once influential Newin Chidchob. We have also learned that Chavalit "cat of nine lives" Yongchaiyudh has been earmarked for a very important political mission.

Most of all, the real hand that picked the controversial Cabinet is obvious. Rumours about the tentative lists being sent back and forth between Bangkok and London coincided with the ascendancy of politicians still loyal to the "master" and those whose allegiance has been questioned fading away. The Cabinet list shows that Thaksin Shinawatra is still very much in charge of the People Power Party. It shows that this is his last-ditch struggle.

Somchai could have set up a much better Cabinet, despite all the constraints, but the line-up confirms a deep desire for the People Power Party to hang onto power as long as it can. It confirms that he, or Thaksin to be exact, is desperate to keep an increasingly fragile alliance together. Many notorious figures have been repaid in the formation of what looks like a special-operations government. This is a time-buying administration at best.

On one hand, one wonders how much longer Thaksin will keep struggling and scheming. In about three weeks he is likely to become the complete fugitive when the Supreme Court's special section for political office-holders hands down a verdict on the Ratchadaphisek land case. If found guilty, he would have to languish outside Thailand for up to 15 years. It won't matter whether the People Power Party wins an election again, as an election mandate won't be able to save him this time, just as it couldn't save the three allegedly pro-Thaksin former election commissioners who are now behind bars.

On the other hand, Thaksin has nothing to lose. If there is even the faintest light at the end of the tunnel, it is the hope that the pro-Thaksin camp will remain the strongest grass-roots political force come what may. He cannot let it disintegrate into a fractious movement that would lose both control of the government and popular appeal. There's a big difference between being a lonely former leader in exile and someone "whose party would surely win an election if one were held tomorrow".

It will require deeper soul-searching as far as the People Power Party is concerned. How much longer will it have to depend on someone so far away to dictate its every move? When can party candidates win an election without having to wear a pro-Thaksin label? Is it time for the party to get out from under Thaksin's shadow and move on, or is this a period when it needs him more than ever?

There are costs for whichever route the People Power Party wants to take. Freeing itself from Thaksin would have an immediate effect in northeastern constituencies, but sticking with him could carry far more dangerous and unpredictable risks. Somchai's tied hands in the formation of the Cabinet are strong proof of that.

In other words, Somchai was gambling on one man. The Cabinet line-up wiped away his early image as someone who is so near to yet so far from Thaksin. Any semblance of independence evaporated once the ministerial list was announced, and it's become quite clear that the new prime minister is anything but a true leader who can really take his party forward. More worrisome is the fact that there seems to be no other alternative. Thaksin's charisma and popularity have made his political party, first Thai Rak Thai and now the People Power Party, into a one-man institution. The re-emergence of former prime minister Chavalit is interesting, but even if he takes over from Somchai, the former general would end up facing the same dilemma. He would also have to listen to instructions from London, and he would also be branded by the People's Alliance for Democracy as another "nominee" of Thaksin.

There are leaders who'd rather see their legacies crumble before their eyes than have them transformed into something else. The Cabinet line-up has demonstrated that the People Power Party and Thaksin have come to that crucial junction.