For PM Somchai, the coundown begins on Day One

The almost total absence of respectable, non-partisan Cabinet members is the main reason, of course. But what will really contribute to the demise of the new Cabinet will be an implosion.

Somchai cannot handle it any better than his predecessor, Samak Sundaravej.

Both had to follow the same old power-sharing (seat-allocation) formula. For the PPP, six portfolios go to the North, five for the party's central office, four for the Newin Group, two for the Central Plains, and one each for the smaller factions.

The final outcome: an almost identical copy of the Samak Cabinet, albeit with a more soft-spoken premier.

There is, however, a new, more destabilising element at play. Factional in-fighting within the PPP will bring down the government even before its performance is rated by the public.

Premier Somchai's wife, Yaowapa, heads a PPP faction known as "Wang Bua Baan" (Blooming Lotus). Her most ferocious rival is Newin Chidchob, who controls the "Friends of Newin" group that claims a membership of 73 PPP MPs.

The two factions are fighting a thinly veiled, ongoing battle for control of the party.

The Wang Bua Baan wing was apparently upset when the "Gang of Four" (led by Samak when he was premier, and strongly aided by Newin) was given a number of influential Cabinet posts. The battle between the two factions for influence within the PPP was sparked when they began trading accusations that the other was betraying the "big boss" Thaksin Shinawatra, the fugitive ex-premier, who has set up his base in London.

If blood is thicker than water, then PM Somchai's wife will hold sway. But Newin, who had been seen crying in public to show his "undying loyalty" to Thaksin, is now portrayed by his opponents as a wildly ambitious, power-hungry manipulator who will stop at nothing to achieve his political ends, by hook or by crook.

Yaowapa's political position isn't totally invulnerable though. She is facing charges, now lodged with the National Counter-Corruption Commission, of being "unusually wealthy" and "hiding" her wealth in the name of her daughter in stocks in several private companies. The danger of Premier Somchai being linked to his wife's financial dealings in the ongoing investigations can't be totally ruled out.

Both factions are also preparing for the worst-case scenario - when the PPP is dissolved by the Constitutional Court, now that Yongyuth Tiyapairat, the ex-deputy party leader, has been handed a red card for cheating in the last election.

Somchai's wife is said to be behind the registration of a new party under the "Puea Thai" banner in case the PPP is disbanded. Newin's faction has likewise set up a "reserve" party in case it needs a new base from which to launch its political offensive once it is no longer under the PPP's umbrella.

The Wang Bua Baan wing, of course, realises that the threat from Friends of Newin not to vote for Somchai in the House last Wednesday was nothing more than a bluff to bargain for six Cabinet portfolios in the new line-up. Newin's insistence on getting a communications portfolio was a clear sign that he is gunning for control of the "money purse" in preparation for a new election. That's when Newin's faction could break away to form a new grouping to get back into power, whether or not the PPP survives the upcoming ruling.

Yaowapa's faction gave in to Newin during late-night negotiations last week before the House vote because it was desperate to avoid a devastating rebellion within the party. Her ploy was, of course, to beat a strategic retreat in order to fight the war another day.

Prime Minister Somchai therefore takes the helm of a badly fractured party, amidst deep suspicion of his being Thaksin's direct nominee, and growing pressure from the People's Alliance for Democracy, still occupying the Government House compound. He can hardly meet all the demands without being eaten alive by his own more hawkish party members and political rivals, who are ready to join forces with any political group to ensure his early departure from the country's top post.

The more blatant the public support for the premier's wife's faction, the more damaging it will be for his political position. The more compromises he has to make with the various factions, the shorter his political term.

The countdown begins on Day One.

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