Somchai gets the premiership: that's the easy part

Somchai is not only a much more pleasant, soft-spoken guy, he can even be charming and persuasive - except for one thing: he is too closely linked to ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, having been married to the latter's younger sister Yaowapa.

And, for that very reason, Somchai's government will be short-lived and the pressure to dissolve the House to call a new election will be overwhelming.

One can hardly find a more obvious contradiction between Samak and Somchai in style, temperament and substance. But the intensity of opposition the new premier faces from the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) won't be any less than that inflicted upon his predecessor.

One PAD leader has been quoted as saying: "We know who Somchai is. Of course, Samak was a Thaksin nominee and there was never any secret about that. But Somchai is the real link to Thaksin's family. We won't give him the benefit of the doubt. And forget about any honeymoon period."

Don't be taken aback if Somchai decides to go on a charm offensive against all his critics. He will do everything that Samak refused to do in dealing with the protesters. He will adopt a live-and-let-live strategy with the PAD.

When the Cabinet decided on Tuesday to allocate a budget of Bt8 million to renovate part of Don Mueang Airport and turn it into a makeshift Government House, it became clear that the new premier was ready to let PAD protesters continue with the occupation of the Government House compound on Phitsanulok Road. The Cabinet will move its offices to the temporary shelter at the old airport site while the new leader offers an olive branch to the staunchly anti-government PAD.

While Samak brandished his stick with some harsh, threatening rhetoric against the protesters, Somchai now offers a carrot with his conciliatory tone.

The ploy is clearly to seek sympathy in the hope of winning public sympathy after his predecessor's hardball approach, which seriously alienated the ruling People Power Party from the country's frustrated and disillusioned academic community and urban middle-class.

But if the PAD is Somchai's worst enemy on the outside, the "Friends of Newin" faction in his own party will prove to be the biggest threat from within.

Newin Chidchob, once an ardent Thaksin lieutenant, who leads a group of about 72 MPs from the Northeast, is poised to challenge Somchai's power base.

When the PPP's executive committee decided on Monday to vote for Somchai in Wednesday's House vote, the Newin faction staged a mutiny of sorts, demanding that the party executives review the choice.

Newin was known to be instrumental in backing Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee to assume the premiership - and one of Somchai's close aides was quick to point out to reporters in informal briefings that Newin and Surapong were "colluding" to betray Thaksin.

The fact that things were finally wrapped up in the House yesterday - and the attempted rebellion within the party turned out to be nothing but political extortion in exchange for more Cabinet portfolios - doesn't mean that political stability has been restored.

On the contrary, the noisy confrontation in the party through Monday and Tuesday couldn't hide the fact that the new Somchai-led Cabinet will immediately run into the eye of the political storm.

Somchai won the battle in the House yesterday but he may still lose the war. His more accommodating style alone doesn't guarantee his political survival. Somchai will have to prove that he can deliver substance.

To gain any real credibility and the authority to rule, Somchai will have to answer some real-life, no-nonsense questions such as:

1. Can he prove that he won't be undermined by the highly explosive Thaksin factor?

2. Will he pursue Thaksin's extradition from England to stand trial here?

3. Will he take up the issue of revoking Thaksin's diplomatic passport now that the former premier has jumped bail and issued a statement alleging political interference in the country's judicial system?

4. Can he restore the serious conflicts within the PPP?

5. Does he have the clout to form a credible and effective Cabinet?

As of today, the answers to these five questions are unfortunately all negative.

(Watch my video comments on the latest political developments on my blog at: http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ThaiTalk.)