Ratchadaphisek vase verdict will only widen political divide

The Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders is scheduled to decide today whether Thaksin, when prime minister, somehow helped his wife win the Bt772-million land auction held by the Financial Institutions Development Fund.

If Thaksin is convicted it would further limit his chances of staging a direct political comeback. He could, however, still exercise political influence through his proxies as he appeared to have been doing since he was ousted in the September 2006 coup.

While the three-month long trial appeared far from conclusive to observers the truth is that no matter what the outcome, it will change almost nothing when it comes to supporters or opponents of Thaksin.

Thaksin has been branded an enemy of Thailand and democracy by opponents such as the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). A guilty verdict today would only reinforce the belief these people have about Thaksin, his wife, and their cronies.

On the other hand, fans and supporters of Thaksin are unlikely to change their perceptions of him even if he and his wife are found guilty. This is because they believe that Thaksin has been framed by opponents and the military junta, which staged the coup in 2006, and later appointed the Assets Examination Committee, which brought the case to the court. A guilty verdict would most likely reinforce their belief that Thaksin and Pojaman are victims of the on-going smear campaign that will stop at nothing short of removing the former premier from the Thai political landscape for good.

If the two are found not-guilty, the PAD will in all probability believe that the man is still guilty but somehow must have either managed to hire very good lawyers to find some legal loopholes to unduly influence the court's decision.

This is the irony of the verdict, which now looms over the deeply divided political landscape. Because the divisions are so deep, the verdict will be read by opposing parties in a way that reinforces their assumptions and beliefs.

Judicial review is no longer likely to be able to put to rest the deep political divide, even if the rich and powerful couple is successfully put behind bars.

The genie has been let out of the bottle and a majority of poor rural voters will continue to support the so-called "populist" policies first introduced by Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT) and since last December by the People Power Party (PPP), which is regarded as the reincarnation of the now-defunct TRT. If the PPP is to be disbanded in a few months' time for alleged electoral fraud, it is still likely that whatever the new party representing Thaksin and his cronies, it will still receive support from these voters.

All this is while the real battle has moved on to the attempt by the PAD to introduce the controversial and undemocratic system called "New Politics" wherein 70 per cent of MPs would be appointed instead of elected.

For now the court's verdict will be reduced to a side-show that will inevitably add fuel to the political fire that is raging and threatens to bring down the legitimacy of electoral democracy.