Central bank paints gloomy picture if political unrest lingers

Private consumption, investment and tourism will all take hits if the political unrest is prolonged, according to Bank of Thailand senior director Amara Sriphayak.

Meanwhile, Pramon Sutivong, chairman of the Board of Trade of Thailand, said business leaders would meet on Monday to assess the impact of the ongoing

protests.

"We hope the situation will ease within a couple of days," said Pramon, after business and industrial groupings yesterday abruptly cancelled a joint press conference.

Amara of the BOT said the magnitude of the impact on business and consumer confidence would largely depend on the magnitude of violence.

The negative effect will be minimal if the situation is brought under control quickly, she said.

Under the present circumstances, the tourism sector will be badly affected as the unrest is broadcast around the world.

She said consumer and business sentiment had just recovered in July, giving support to the domestic-demand recovery, but the unrest could change that.

The Private Consumption Index expanded 9.3 per cent in July, accelerating from a 6.1-per-cent hike in June. It also rose 3.4 per cent on a yearly month-on-month basis.

As for the Private Investment Index, it grew by 3.9 per cent, compared with 4.3 per cent in June. The Business Sentiment Index was 41.5 in July, slightly higher than 40.9 in previous month. The index for the next three months marked 47.1, compared with 44.2 in June.