Expected real GDP in the 5% range considered acceptable

Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee recently said the government wished to see the economy run faster, at least 6 per cent. But such a target is not easy to reach.

The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) on Tuesday reported real GDP growth slowed to 5.3 per cent year on year in the second quarter, down from 6.1 per cent in the first quarter. This means firsthalf GDP growth was 5.7 per cent.

The NESDB expects secondhalf economic growth to remain above 5 per cent, supported by strong exports and government spending.

But some believe the econo¬my could actually be slower in the second half.

Tisco Securities said in a report released yesterday that it maintained its forecast of 5.2percent GDP growth for the full year, which implies slower growth in the second half than in the first.

Phatra Securities revised its fullyear GDP growth forecast upwards, from 4.6 per cent to 5.1 per cent. Despite the upgrade, the figure is quite con¬servative.

However, no matter what the real GDP turns out to be, what affects people most is the money in their pocket.

Thailand is among 16 devel¬oping countries surveyed by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) where some people are poor by its definition.

The ADB said anyone living on less than US$1.35 (Bt46) a day qualified as poor in the region.

In 2005, there were 843 mil¬lion people in the countries sur¬veyed who were poor by that definition, the bank said in a report being released today. The study covered Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Maldives, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam.

The ADB said it developed the gauge to provide a regionspecific yardstick to for meas¬uring wealth.

The World Bank this week said anyone living on less than $1.25 a day qualified as poor, up from its previous estimate of $1, adding that rising energy and food prices might push more people into poverty.

Raising the threshold for poverty and recalculating living standards placed an additional 415 million people in the ranks of the poor, totalling 1.4 billion. The old $1aday criteria affect¬ed only 985 million people.

"The developing world is poorer than we thought," the report said.