PAD needs to state ulterior motive soon

In the early morning, a group of PAD supporters, led by Amorn Amornratananond, ambushed the studios of National Broadcasting of Thailand (NBT). The station belongs to the Public Relations Department, deemed by the PAD to be the mouthpiece of the government.

Strangely enough, their members - dressed in black and with their faces covered with black cloth - looked more like bandits. They did not look like the Bangkok middle class at all, those who have been wearing yellow shirts and sitting under the sun and the rain to rally against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the Samak Sundaravej government since May 25.

More than 80 members of the PAD were rounded up by the police, with evidence on videotape, after they attacked the station premises and injured its news anchors. The invaders intended to black out NBT and replace the broadcast signal with that of their own ASTV.

However, NBT's nationwide network saved the day. After an initial interruption, the staterun station was able to air its normal programming from an alternative location.

The PAD's strategy was to spread the rally widely to subdue the various premises of the government.

Aside from the NBT attack, Somsak Kosaisuk led protesters to surround Government House. Pipop Thongchai and Suriyasai Katasila led a group in front of the Finance Ministry, while Somkiat Pongpanich took on the Transport Ministry.

Sondhi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimuang, the two core leaders of the PAD, monitored and issued commands from the Makkawan Rangsan Bridge, the headquarters of the PAD.

The PAD is following a political textbook with its rallies. After protesting against the Samak government for three months, the group has decided to undertake civil disobedience in the final stages of the campaign. By doing so, it hopes to forge a sudden political change and achieve its goal.

Success of civil disobedience depends on the broad support of the public and civil servants, as witnessed in 2006 at the height of the rallies against Thaksin after his family's sale of Shin Corp to Temasek Holdings of Singapore. Civil disobedience, to be successful, must also have a theme, must be peaceful and must offer great hope for the future.

Yet the unleashing of civil disobedience yesterday looked more like a riot and complete chaos, because the PAD violated its original principle of not trespassing on government properties or premises. The NBT premises were encroached upon. Sondhi and his followers even made their way inside Government House "to pay respect to the spirit house". He announced that he would not back off until political change occurs.

Middleclass Bangkok people were asking what was going on. So what exactly is the PAD up to? The PAD has repeatedly announced that it would like to remove the Samak government from power because the government is serving as a nominee of Thaksin. It would also like to push the country towards "new politics".

To force Prime Minister Samak out of office, the PAD must gain mass support with its rallies to the point that the military has to step in and ask Samak to resign in order to restore law and order - or was the PAD trying to provoke another coup?

The PAD was confident it would succeed in its Final War. There were signals from the PAD from both the military and the police to go ahead and launch the concluding chapter, but at this point the situation looked suspicious. Was the PAD walking into a trap?

If Samak holds tightly to office and the military does not play along, what could the PAD do? Samak's resignation would still not satisfy the PAD, because Parliament would still vote for one of its members from the People Power Party to become the new leader. If Samak were to dissolve Parliament, the People Power Party would still make a comeback.

Samak went on national television to denounce the PAD and call for the public to take sides. He vowed to take drastic action against the five core leaders of the alliance. He immediately appointed Kowit Watana, the interior minister and former police chief, as the top government man to take on the PAD. It would be an eyetoeye confrontation.

What remains a mystery is why the PAD has pushed for such a confrontation at this juncture when it has already achieved the objective of having Thaksin lose a case in the courts of justice? Moreover, the Samak government is walking on thin ice. The prime minister himself is facing a legal charge. The People Power Party might be dissolved. Other key members of the party might face charges and be barred from politics.

The PAD's ulterior motive will have to be spelled out soon, before the country slips further into calamity.