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The PAD mass and Samak in final showdown today

AFTER nearly 100 days of anti-government rallies, public tirades and street demonstrations, altogether a thorn in the side and embarrassment of the Samak administration, a stage has been set for a final showdown today when tens of thousands of people will form an all-out massive protest.



The goal is to dislodge the Samak Cabinet out of office. For the embattled administration today will be the fiercest test of its endurance and ability to stand up to public pressure to resign following accusations of misdeeds and questionable deals for self-enrichment.

Led by the People's Alliance for Democracy, there have been provincial residents streaming into the capital since Sunday to stage the biggest street demonstration the country has had in recent years.

If everything goes well, the number could be half a million people, a PAD spokesman asserted. The leaders expect to get rid of the Samak Cabinet within six hours after strong pressure from all sides.

Samak, combative orally as ever, professed to be unperturbed after hearing that the PAD had thrown down the gauntlet. It has yet to be known how he would respond to the worst crisis after running the government for six months.

The PAD and its supporters have justified their offensive towards a decisive battle that the politicians in government have been trying to enrich themselves with sweetheart and major projects for self-serving interest without showing regard for the country's financial constraints.

What's more cronyism has been rampant with appointments of tainted academics and ex-civil servants to hold key positions in the central bank, the stock market and other fiscal jobs, raising suspicion about bad motives.

The serious charge is that officials in many units and pro-government House members have not been working for public interests, but rather for ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra who has become a fugitive, seeking political asylum in England.

More notable is that the Police Department has become a political tool for dealing with adversaries of the government, with blatant acts of discrimination, selective prosecution and unfair practices.

In the past two months, the government has come up with large projects with the need for huge financing. The bus procurement deal and the water piping from Laos, and the proposed construction of a new Parliament have been scoffed as a fast track for kickbacks.

Ridden with cronyism and deals for vested interests, the government has been criticized by the public and the media for reckless handling of projects. The crunch came with a warning from HM the King that the country is on threshold of financial ruin due to careless spending.

Samak's attitude, abrasive mannerism and badmouthing have been provocative. A lot of people view him with disgust for the lack of civility and good sense. At times, he was regarded as pretentious and insensitive to the plight of the people. He shows no qualms in supporting Thaksin even after the arrest warrant was issued by the Criminal Court.

If the mass demonstration leads to a city traffic snarls-up, state enterprise labour unions can make the situation worse for government premises with possible disruption in water and power supplies, tightening the screw on the trouble-plagued administration.

Samak's response could be a tough crackdown. It's highly unlikely for the police to comply if the number of demonstrators is in tens of thousands. A state of emergency would also signal and end to his rule because the military forces with not aim their weapons at the people.

A dreadful possibility is that politicians loyal to Thaksin could try to mobilize thugs and goons to battle the PAD-led demonstrators, for the government to order suppression. Such street violent confrontation would certainly lead to military intervention. 

There is another option, Samak helpless and desperate could still resort to unreasonable decision by dissolving Parliament and gain some time in power. That would not work. A most likely scenario is that the ageing politician might be advised, under coercive bargaining, for him to step down to avoid violence and for his own good.

What is his chance of surviving the crisis? If Samak decides to fight with teeth and claws, he will end up as a despised despot. A much worse fate awaits him. The Appeals Court is due to deliver its verdict late next month. If the 2-year jail term is upheld, he will incarcerate in prison.

If he really wants to win at whatever cost, he will have to step over many dead bodies. The country will be reminded of the bloodbath on October 6, 1976 in which Samak was a key player in the tragedy.

If he is power blind, or power mad, Samak can be unpredictable. Like a saying, desperate man resorts to desperate measures, Samak is no exception in facing whatever consequences even there is a slim chance that he could win over the demonstrators he so hates. 


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