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BURNING ISSUE

Samak tight-lipped on how he'll rifts within PPP

REPORTS that Parliament will be dissolved have been pushed by a clique of MPs from the Northeast ahead of today's meeting of the Election Commission to decide whether to seek the disbanding of the People Power Party.



Party spokesman Kuthep Saikrajang said it was a foregone conclusion that the commission would petition the Constitution Court to rule on how the party should be penalised for electoral violations by its executive Yongyuth Tiyapairat.

The handling of the dissolution case involving the People Power Party will follow precedents set by two similar cases involving Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya parties.

Kuthep contends that the outcome of the judicial review is likely to lead to his party being dissolved because there is little leeway for leniency.

Talk of a snap election appears to have been triggered by the party dissolution case. But there might be more to a story than what meets the eye.

If the disbanding of the Thai Rak Thai Party last year is any indication, the judicial review could take up to seven months. And none of the cases involving the three coalition parties has reached the trial stage.

To cushion against the adverse impacts from party dissolution, if this should eventually happen, the People Power Party has already formed the Puea Thai Party as a back-up.

In other words, government lawmakers appear hasty to push for early polls now when it could be a year before they have to make such a move. They could also be testing the water to solicit reactions about the future of the People Power Party.

For the time being, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has cut himself free from his legal battles to live in exile in London. This has triggered a realignment of power within the People Power Party.

MPs from the Northeast need to chart a new course in order to retain a voice in the power sharing. By talking about scenarios for the next polls, they may be able to appraise their bargaining leverage.

There are several possibilities that could emerge for Northeastern MPs depending on how Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej performs as national leader.

In the People Power Party presently, House seats from the Northeast are divided up between MPs from the upper region, mostly comprising the Isaan Pattana faction and those from the lower region, belonging to Newin Chidchob's faction.

Isaan Pattana MPs are suspicious of their rival faction because Newin Chidchob seems to have monopolised plum assignments by becoming Samak's confidant.

But MPs from the upper Northeast are reluctant to accept Newin as a faction leader because of uncertainty associated with him being banned from politics for five years.

Even though Newin's supporters have tried to portray him as a political heir apparent to Thaksin, he is still banned for another four years, which is a long time and could upset any future plans.

If Samak continues to play favourites with Newin, he risks alienating a significant number of Isaan Pattana MPs.

Samak's grip on the upper and the lower Northeast would ensure the People Power thrives, even if it was forced to transform into the Puea Thai Party.

The alternative is that his party will weaken if the disenchanted Isaan Pattana faction drifts away and allies with Thai Rak Thai splinter groups now affiliated with the Suwat Liptapanlop clique in the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana Party or the the Suwit Khunkitti-Preecha Laohapongchana clique at the Puea Pandin Party.

Samak has been tight-lipped so far on how he will try to mend his party's infighting. In his speech on Sunday, he acknowledged he was duty-bound to tackle problems within his party. But he remains evasive on remedies.

He has vowed to stay in the top job regardless of political woes. In addressing his opponents, including the People's Alliance for Democracy, he said he would not dissolve the House before he trying to resolve the political divide.


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