Twenty years on, Burma's opposition lacks unity

Last year students and monks led a peaceful demonstration against fuel-price hikes which lead to September's "saffron revolution", and many Burmese activists around the globe plan to hold ceremonies to mark the anniversary.

In Thailand, before they head to Beijing for the Olympics opening ceremony, US President George Bush and First Lady Laura Bush will encourage Burmese activists in Bangkok to fight on for their freedom. This is significant support from the world's most powerful country but it is not to enough to change the situation inside Burma. Obviously, the US has tried to punish the Burmese regime though the United Nations Security Council, but two decades of economic and diplomatic sanctions have not worked. China, the main supporter and business partner of the Burmese junta, uses its UN veto all the time to act against the US's desire.

"We want to urge the UN Security Council and world leaders to take action; words are not enough," said Htun Myin Aung of the 88 Generation Student Group in a telephone interview from his hiding place in Rangoon.

"The UN Security Council and the US urgently need to announce that they do not recognise the junta's referendum result, as they did on Zimbabwe's election result," the leader-in-hiding added.

If the UN can do this, the 88 Generation Student Group, 1990's election winners and many activists believe there will be negotiations between the junta leader Gen Than Shwe and detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

But a rival of the 88 Generation Student Group, Aye Lwin, does not agree. "This is just their dream of outsiders helping. In reality, there is no dialogue, only the need to try to win the 2010 election" the pro-junta student leader said.

"They blame the Tatmataw [the Burmese Army] all the time but never try to organise themselves. That is why they have not reached their goals or achieved power in 20 years" the controversial said from his government-backed figure.

There is no doubt that many activists, especially those in exile, will be angry at his comments. Why? Is there any wrong fact here? Or is it just too hard to recognise a different opinion from a rival group?

No matter whether we agree or disagree on that question, we need to seriously review why we have not yet reached the goals set 20 years ago. According to some activists and researchers, the main reason is a lack of unity among the democracy movement's leaders. They point out that the opposition had a chance to form an interim government during the power vacuum after the 1988 uprising. Secondly, they also had a chance to take power after the 1990 election, in which Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy won 80 per cent of the vote.

After the junta refused to recognise the result of the 1990 election, some politicians and activists went to rebel-controlled areas where thousands of students from the 1988 uprising had founded a self-styled student army. But there on the Thai border, they similarly faced a lack of unity among the leaders. The student army divided into two factions in 1991, while their allies the Kachin and Mon armed rebels signed cease-fire agreements with the junta in 1994 and 1995. The powerful Karen rebel group split in late 1995 with the Buddhist Karen joining sides with the junta. The result of the lack of unity among the leaders made for growing distrust of other factions. Many students and activists, including some Karen rebels, left their guns to go to third countries while the junta occupied many of their former bases.

Back in Rangoon, the junta held a National Convention in 1993 but the NLD walked out in 1996. Since then, the NLD has called for dialogue with the junta but without success, although there were some meetings between Than Shwe and Aung San Suu Kyi sponsored by ousted prime minister Khin Nyunt before the 2003 Depeyin massacre.

The international community has called for the junta to respect the result of the 1990 election and begin dialogue with opposition. There have been at least three UN special envoys to Burma, including Gambari, who is heading back to Burma later this month. Even though the UNSC discusses Burma continually, there is no sign of Than Shwe changing his tune.

However, there is still an opening to deal with the junta in the wake of Cyclone Nargis, which hit Burma leaving 135,000 people dead and missing and millions homeless. The junta needs millions of dollars in urgent help from the outside world, although it continues to berate the West in its state-controlled media.

But the world body needs to remember that international aid is not the first priority for the junta, but power. UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon and other world leaders well know how badly the SPDC has dealt with the aid operation to for millions of cyclone survivors. But Ban did not say a word about politics when he meet Than Shwe in Naypyidaw; instead he focused only on the humanitarian mission.

However, Than Shwe didn't listen to the UN's warnings but went ahead with all his political plans: the constitutional referendum in May, the adoption of the constitution in June and now the preparations for an election in 2010.

In this scenario, can there be any opportunity left to reconsider the SPDC-led seven-step road map before the 2010 election? Will there be any dialogue as demanded by the 88 Generation Student Group and representatives of 1990's election winners? There is no guarantee but the chance is still open. But it depends on unity among world leaders, especially the five permanent members of the UNSC. It also depends on unity among the Burmese opposition leaders and on how much the junta wants to maintain the status quo.

"We need action now. No more words," young activists will shout on Rangoon's streets on the anniversary of "8888".

Htet Aung Saw took part in the 1988 student uprising and now works for the Oslo-based "Dmeocratic Voice of Burma".