Don't rush to write off Samak's term as prime minister

To opponents, the government is on the verge of collapse. This is based on the assumption that leaders should have been held accountable for the unconstitutional act relating to Preah Vihear Temple.

If Samak and his allies manage to elude responsibility this time, their remaining days in office might have been numbered already by other litigation facing them.

To supporters and allies, the government is confronting so many woes that are totally unjustified. This is based on the assumption that the Constitution might have been written to wipe out remnants linked to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Friends and foes both agree that the government is in trouble although the opposing sides differ on what has caused the predicament. The government blames the political system for undermining it. Critics attribute the political jitters to poor leadership.

As emotions are high, it is a futile exercise to judge what went wrong with Thai politics. With the benefit of hindsight, future historians are in a better position to come up with an explanation.

In order to survive the present political predicament, which is unprecedented, the situation requires calmness, coherent thoughts and a good measure of common sense.

Doomsday scenarios and knee-jerk reactions will accomplish nothing but exacerbate an already bad situation.

The Samak government should have done a lot of things. Its leadership might have been better. But the fact of the matter is that it is what it is - filled with flaws though remaining a fully functioning administration.

Thailand is at the political crossroads - it can carry on whining and trying to dislodge the government or it can opt to move forward by making the best out of a given circumstance.

The leadership of Samak Sundaravej will definitely not last a full term due to legal wrangling. Samak's departure date should be within one year if the judicial review runs it course and turns out a damning verdict against the government.

It is unreasonable to demand or expect Samak to voluntarily quit office. He is known to have thick skin, hence he will not step down just because the Constitution Court ruled a June 17 Cabinet resolution as unconstitutional. In fact, even if he quits now, the country would be likely to plunge into a deeper quagmire caused by the power struggle. The People Power Party has virtually no candidates to replace him. None of the coalition partners are seen as credible replacements.

And the coalition alliance is unlikely to swing to the Democrat Party before the next general election.

Samak faces no serious pressure to quit. He will not revamp his Cabinet as has been suggested by allies and opponents alike.

Due to vacant seats, the Cabinet reshuffle is unavoidable and will happen soon. But Samak is not a fool to upset the apple cart holding his alliance intact by making drastic changes.

Two pieces of litigation might bring about his departure in one year or earlier. The Constitution Court is expected to rule on his qualifications to lead - put in doubt by his involvement in two cooking shows. This has little chance to remove him from office.

The other case on the dissolution of the main coalition party poses a serious threat to the government. Based on precedents from the disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, the trial may take about seven months and pre-trial preparations will take up at least three months. So the government has about a year to carry on its work.

The remaining litigation might cause the government's downfall too but may take more than a year to conclude.

Based on the ticking of the judicial clock, Samak has plenty of time to do his job and ensure his legacy. He is in a position to execute many mega-projects, which are slated to advance the economy.

The unanswered question is, will he rise above the political animosity to get his job done?