• 
• 

It seems all the issues are coming to a head, thanks to the judiciary's hail of gunfire at the Samak government and Thaksin Shinawatra. Now, the People Power Party's future is extremely fragile and Samak Sundaravej's is probably even more so.

On the surface, the fate of the "nominees" is crumbling quicker than that of their master. But that ignores the telltale developments in the Ratchadaphisek land case, which could land Thaksin squarely in jail.

I have received e-mails asking how all the major cases will play out. Here are the answers to less discussed questions:

Could the court rule on the land case before the military reshuffle?

This question has to do with cynical speculation that the only way for Thaksin to escape a guilty verdict and possibly jail is through some kind of political "accident", this time engineered by military men on his side. With those in key positions still linked considerably to his rivals or are at least neutral, such an accident can only happen after the annual military reshuffle when a new crop rises to power.

I see this speculation as part of a pre-emptive strategy designed to tell the Thaksin camp: "Don't even think about it". My take is a pro-Thaksin coup is impossible without major bloodshed or upheaval.

The land-case trial will run until early September, with considerable time given to Thaksin to defend himself for the last time.

In the case of former interior minister Vatana Asavahame, accused of involvement in the Klong Dan wastewater plant scandal, the court finished its hearing three months ago, only to schedule its verdict reading this week, thanks mainly to Vatana's frequently postponed appearances.

With lawyers' delaying tactics and all, the Thaksin case should be ruled on way after the October military reshuffle, probably very close to the year's end.

Thanks for your questions,  information and suggestions.

One reader, perhaps mistaking the National Counter Corruption Commission for the Anti-Money Laundering Office, asked if the NCCC could be trusted with cases from the now-defunct Assets Examination Committee. It depends which side you're on. This NCCC was set up virtually by the coup-makers so surely the anti-Thaksin camp has considerable faith in it.

Big gratitude to Anthony Pearson, who helped clarify on Thaksin's Manchester City future by explaining that if the former PM is convicted of one charge - appeals and Supreme Courts notwithstanding - he will be made to divest his shares in full.

 

Send your e-mail to tulsat@hotmail.com