• 
• 

Its political momentum has already withered. This follows a Civil Court order for the PAD to remove its blockades on Rama V and Phitsanulok Roads during the daytime in order to ease the flow of traffic for teachers and students of the Rachawinit Secondary School. The PAD promptly appealed the decision, but the Civil Court on Wednesday stood by the verdict of the lower court. The police now want the PAD to remove its stage and equipment from the streets altogether. The PAD was resurrected and has been organising street rallies since May 25.

Chamlong Srimuang, Sonthi Limthongkul and other core PAD leaders might find it difficult to swallow their pride by agreeing to disperse from the streets peacefully. Their ultimate goal of bringing down the Samak Cabinet and uprooting the influence of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra from Thai politics altogether has not been accomplished. But this last political demand, which has been the subject for improvisation periodically, goes beyond sanity.

In fact, the PAD can claim credit for its achievements. First, its rally has succeeded in blocking the government's attempt to rewrite the 2007 Constitution to help the 111 former executives of the now defunct Thai Rak Thai party return to politics and to help Thaksin escape from the corruption cases against him.

Second, the group has succeeded in applying pressure on Jakrapob Penkair, the former PM's Office Minister, to resign. Jakrapob is now under police investigation on allegations that he offended the monarchy.

Third, its fierce attack against Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama has forced the Samak government to nullify Noppadon's endorsement of the government of Cambodia's move to enter a sole application for the inclusion of the Preah Vihear Temple on Unesco's World Heritage list.

Fourth, the PAD's street rallies also led the Samak government to take politics from the street into the Parliament by allowing the opposition Democrat Party to launch a no-confidence debate against Samak Sundaravej, the prime minister himself, and seven other key ministers.

What else do the PAD's leaders want?

Indeed, the PAD has been too ambitious with its aim of removing the Samak government from power. Its leaders were confident that they could finish the game early by forcing a radical political change in late May. That game plan failed because the military did not show up. The final battle was delayed until June 20 when the PAD planned to take over Government House.

The PAD was confident in its military ally. At the same time, the military's bargaining power is also dependent on strength of PAD. In Thai politics, the military's role becomes crucial when the political system and the government are weak.

But Samak also has strong military ties.

 On the day of the PAD's takeover of Government House, Samak held a meeting with the military chieftains at the Army Sports Club on Vibhavadi-Rangsit Road. He asked whether any military units would come out to stage a coup against his government.

Both General Anupong Paochinda, the Army chief, and First Army Commander Lt-General Prayuth Chan-ocha assured him that there would not be a coup. In a political deal, Samak agreed to let Anupong have a free hand in the reshuffle of military personnel under the defence law in September of this year.

With the closure of this political deal, the PAD was sacrificed. Samak moved quickly to save his government by neutralising the PAD even further by letting the Democrats grill his  Cabinet in Parliament.

It was against Samak's character to allow the opposition to go forward with a no-confidence debate. But this shrewd move succeeded in silencing the cries from the street demonstrations, as the Thai public focused their attention on the parliamentary debate.

As expected, the Samak government survived the no-confidence debate because it still controlled the majority of the House votes.

The Democrats got credit for their oratory skills and ability to open up the wounds of the Samak Cabinet. But the PAD was left in the cold with its empty rhetoric.

By the way, the judicial review is now underway. It will provide a solution to Thailand's political future. Thaksin's lawyers have been sentenced to jail for contempt of the Supreme Court. Former House speaker Yongyuth Tiyapairat is struggling with his electoral fraud case in the Supreme Court. Thaksin and his wife Pojaman will also go on trial next week in the Supreme Court over the Ratchadaphisek land deal.

Now the PAD must seriously consider a tactical retreat. The Civil Court's orders have given it a narrow window of opportunity to make a soft-landing. It can regroup again in the future and will continue to attract the middle-class crowds if it maintains credibility in their eyes. Now is the time for the PAD to disperse and let the judicial review take its appropriate course.