Political impasse nears boiling point

The Thai political situation could reach boiling point over the next couple of days. The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which has been staging a political rally since May 25, is now looking toward a final showdown. On Friday, it plans to move its street demonstration, now located at Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge, to the Government House. Once it has established itself around the Government House, the Samak administration may become a sitting duck.

No standing government in the world would allow political demonstrators to mass in front of its headquarters, for such a thing could develop into a dangerously permanent fixture that rendered the government impotent. If the government is no longer in charge, what credibility is left for it to manage the country?

The PAD is demanding that the Samak government step down, otherwise it will not end its protest. With forced political change, it hopes the corruption cases against ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra will proceed unhindered.

The PAD has said that if the police use force against its members, there will be a political uprising throughout the country. Its broad network of support, which includes academics, the urban middle class, labourers and the unions, will rally to surround the official residences of provincial governors.  It looks exactly like a replay of 2006. Thaksin Shinawatra, the then prime minister, fell into this trap. He allowed the PAD to move from place to place before surrounding the Government House for a sustained period. Thaksin asked Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the then Army chief, to become his ally. He would declare a state of emergency to pave the way for Sonthi to bring the Army out to quash the PAD. But Sonthi replied politely that he could not hurt the Thai people. Their relationship deteriorated to the point of no return. Thaksin, who was actually serving as caretaker prime minister, abandoned Bangkok to hold mobile Cabinet meetings around the country. Eventually, he was toppled from power in a coup led by Gen Sonthi in September 2006.

The PAD has regrouped because of the agenda that remains unfinished since 2006. The coup only removed Thaksin from power temporarily. Through nominees, he has regained power by manoeuvring behind the scenes. The PAD now aims for the removal of Thaksin from political power once and for all.

Again, we have arrived at a difficult juncture. Dr Prawase Wasi, the social critic, is right to have pointed out the polarisation of Thai politics. There are now some 14 million voters who are pro-Thaksin and who have helped bring the People Power Party to power. There are about 12 million people who dislike Thaksin. The divide is deep and bitter, perhaps beyond reconciliation. Rewriting the Constitution is not a way out, nor is dissolving Parliament, disbanding the People Power Party, or staging yet another coup. Prawase has recommended that all sides take a step backward and allow the People Power Party-led government to continue to run the country. Second, the corruption cases against Thaksin must proceed without any political interference. Third, Thaksin must stop getting involved in politics.

Since the pro-Thaksin supporters and the anti-Thaksin lobby are not going to talk to each other, we are afraid that the country is heading towards a collision course. The PAD will rally until it can remove the Samak government from power. The Samak government at some point will be tempted to rely on force to disperse the demonstartors because it can't allow the PAD to lay siege to the Government House. If there is violence, the military will be forced to come onto the streets again.

Are we going to witness a repeat of the past? Don't Thais have the wisdom to resolve their conflicts peacefully? Don't we have any sense of sacrifice so that the whole country can move ahead again?