
The political situation has become dangerous. The People's Alliance for Democracy plans to move its rally to Government House on Friday, mounting the final, decisive battle to remove the Samak government from power. The PAD accuses Samak of acting as nominee for ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. If the PAD can fortify its stage in front of Government House, you can start to count down the days of the Samak government.
Samak is facing problems from all sides after just four months in office. Within the government, there is hardly any unity. Take the case of Mingkwan Sangsuwan, the commerce minister, as an example. Mingkwan is being sacrificed so that invisible hands can reap the benefits from the government's Bt25-billion rice guarantee programme.
Meanwhile, Samak's Cabinet decided on Tuesday to delay a decision on the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority's lease of 6,000 NGV buses for fear that it would become a scandal in the upcoming censure debate. The Democrat Party is aiming to launch a no-confidence debate against Samak and seven of his Cabinet colleagues for incompetence and alleged corruption.
In the meantime, business people and the public are becoming angry at the Samak government for showing indifference to the plight of the economy. Inflation is threatening to go through the roof, while oil prices have skyrocketed. Yet Samak is at loss over how to deal with economic problems in the real world. Stock investors are selling equities as they don't know how the government will tackle economic issues or how the political crisis will end.
The Chart Thai Party is starting to take jabs at the government. Agriculture Minister Somsak Prissanananthakul said he did not understand why Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama rushed to seek Cabinet approval for a deal with Cambodia to announce Preah Vihear as a World Heritage Site. Karnjana Silapa-archa, daughter of party leader Banharn Silapa-archa, supported the opposition's move to debate the controversial bus-lease programme in Parliament.
If the political crisis spins out of control, Samak may be forced by the situation - and a combination of pressure from both inside and outside his party - to resign without having to dissolve Parliament.
We are starting to hear that Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee is preparing to take up the reins of power. But you can't rule out the possibility of Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva emerging as a dark horse. This would have to entail a special arrangement for Thailand to move forward without the curse of another military coup.