• 
• 

Both sides in the conflict have dug their heels in the sand, and are still spoiling for a fight.

The flash-point, which could happen anytime, sooner or later, just awaits the first blow, or shot, so to speak. The confrontation has gone on for too long, and is inching towards a collision.

The Peoples' Alliance for Democracy has been organising peaceful political rallies in the heart of the capital for more than two weeks, quite unusual compared to similar protest movements elsewhere.

The participants don't want violence. That's why they include the elderly, women and children. The protesters represent a broad cross-section of society and they are gathering to voice their grievances and seek change for the better.

A new strategy that the leaders of the rallies eventually may adopt could be a campaign of civil disobedience in order to cripple the Samak administration now that it has already become a lame-duck. But this could lead to a crackdown and, later, unpredictable consequences.

A flare-up of violence is not just a remote possibility. Frustrated by the PAD rallies, which are gaining popularity and drawing more people from the countryside, the pro-government groups intend to mobilise supporters to counter the PAD, with ever-present whispers from some quarters about street confrontation.

Many people, including those in political parties, agree that reconciliation is out of the question due to deep-seated vested interests, especially as government agencies are coming up with multi-million baht projects that could yield handsome kickbacks.

The stakes are high and the coalition parties could switch camps. This is an excellent opportunity to build up their war chests, starting from the bottom of the barrel, while working on projects with huge budgets.

In their view, if the economy is going to crash due to the political crisis, rising oil prices, runaway inflation and the weakening baht, they shouldn't be the ones left with empty pockets and stomachs. In case of a snap election, they want all the advantages.

What will happen if the exchange of barbs comes to blows? It depends on the extent of the violence and the possibility of any such outbreak escalating into a real crisis. The government is waiting for the right time to crack down hard on the protesters.

After being put under extreme pressure for over two weeks - having to withstand abusive words, the exposure of misdeeds and shameless conduct by Cabinet members - the Samak administration will spare no effort in eliminating unpleasant voices of opposition from the streets.

History shows that political violence in our country lasts just a few days, with an aftermath of little activity. If blood is spilled, it should set a precedent that a change of government ensues, supposedly for national reconciliation.

We had one such administration only a few months ago, headed by a retired military general, whose sloppy performance is being outdone by the present government, even more so in terms of credibility and image problems. Talks could begin if damage is done to the country's overall structure. The business and investment climate could be negative for months. But recovery should be quick enough if political miscreants are dealt with decisively through the legal process; this means real punishment for their crimes.

What about the prevailing sentiment? Ironically, a lot of people seem to agree that violence and bloodshed are inevitable and necessary, otherwise the present stand-off can never be resolved and the start of our national rebuilding process cannot begin.

We agree that things cannot go on like this. It is too heavy a toll on the country, with a serious impact on the national economy. We now face all sorts of adversity and a declining ability to cope.     

What have we come to? Basically it's the inability to compromise - a state of affairs which is quite alien to the nature of peace-loving Thais. While violence and bloodshed have yet to become reality, there is still time for all parties to regain their senses, to avoid undesirable occurrences, for the sake of the country.

But this is not possible, it seems. This land is infested with crooked politicians and their partners in crime, and they have rendered the parliamentary process ineffective and financially wasteful. Let's hope that whatever happens - even if it results in a high price for all of us - it includes the cleansing of dirty hands and soiled souls to improve the karma of this land.