Military does not need coups to seize political power

For the past few weeks, the buzz has been about the next coup. Thais may take pride in being a democracy-loving people and at the same time have no qualms about speculating on a power seizure, which many see as a most natural outcome.

Many opinion-makers have spun myriad scenarios with the same ending - tanks will be rolled out to take over Government House once again. Perhaps with fresh memories of the 2006 coup imprinted in their minds, they have overlooked the possibility that a power seizure can happen without a single soldier or tank being deployed.

In fact, if anyone looks closely at unfolding events, soldiers have already exerted a formidable influence without having had to unseat Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej.

It is a moot point to project when and how the next coup will take place when military leaders have commanded the prime minister's undivided attention.

The controversy surrounding embattled minister Jakrapob Penkair is a case in point to illustrate that the top brass can dictate politics via behind-the-scene manipulations.

Jakrapob made his controversial remarks last August. A police officer filed a complaint in March charging him with offending the monarchy. For months, police left the case on the backburner. When opposition members began to inquire about the issue, Samak invoked the legal proceedings as a stall tactic.

Jakrapob started feeling the heat after military leaders raised their concerns about the issue early this month. He rushed to see former prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh to seek help, but was snubbed. He then turned to ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, only to find himself increasingly isolated.

Thaksin urged him to reflect on his remarks, a hint that he should quit. Thaksin's allies in the People Power Party tried but failed to convince Jakrapob to make an early exit.

By the time Jakrapob went to see Thaksin, it was one day too late to salvage his career. On May 20, top military leaders finalised a decision to demand his head.

Defence Ministry permanent secretary General Winai Phattiyakul, Supreme Commander General Boonsrang Niumpradit, Army Chief General Anupong Paochinda, Navy chief Admiral Sathirapan Keyanont and Air Force Chief Chalit Pukbhasuk had a closed-door meeting to seal Jakrapob's fate.

Anupong informed Samak about the military stance.

Although the prime minister was reluctant to play the role of Jakrapob's executioner, he sanctioned a subtle move to take Jakrapob out of his delegation to visit the Philippines.

The government and party henchmen sent a clear signal for police to wrap up the case at full speed after Jakrapob acted in defiance by taking a leave of absence instead of stepping down.

Boonsrang said loud and clear that if he were Jakrapob, he would have resigned. Sathirapan suddenly pleaded that he had a sore throat when asked about a repeat of a coup.

Within 10 days of the military exerting its pressure, Jakrapob tendered his resignation.

His forced departure has set a precedent for the armed forces as a voice to be reckoned with. And Samak happens to be the man who opened the trapdoor for military leaders to dominate the centre stage of politics.

Three months ago, Samak rallied the top brass and the ranking bureaucrats as his power base in light of the fact that he had little clout within his main coalition party. He has never been known for having a successful track record reining in politicians but is recognised for his charm over the armed forces and the civilian bureaucracy.

One of his first remarks after assuming office was a guarantee for Anupong to complete his three-year tenure. Samak has made it clear that he will leave the military to run its affairs without political meddling.

He has initiated a periodic consultation with top military leaders to assess the country's situation, hence allowing them to have a decisive say on practically every key issue. It was through this consultative mechanism that the military forced out Jakrapob.

The prime minister has involved the military in his balancing act for political survival. He should be extra careful on his cosiness with the top brass. The military forced at least two of his predecessors, Tawee Boonyaket and Thawan Thamrongnawasawat, to quit without having to stage a coup to oust them.