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Now that Ma Ying-jeou has become the new president of Taiwan, will this mean big changes for Taiwan and its relations with China? Well, probably not too quickly. The policy of "no unification, no independence, no use of force" remains his modus operandi.

Only a few days after his inauguration, fierce Taiwan media outlets started to challenge President Ma to fulfil his campaign promises. Furthermore, he needs to heal the divide between his party and the Democratic People's Party (DPP). He has openly blamed the DPP for all of the country's ills over the past eight years.

For him, economic troubles at home are most important. If he fails to boost the economy, his leadership would be undermined early on. In the do-or-die world of Taiwanese politics, that would be suicide. As such, he will not be able to bring about much change or increased stability in cross-straits relations. Ma knows what the Beijing leaders want in their bilateral relations with Taiwan. At this juncture, China wants stable relations, both before and after the Olympics. To Beijing, Taiwan remains a barometer of China's diplomacy. As president, Ma has to tread a fine line. He must try to avoid giving the impression that he is a nominee of China. The ruling Kuomintang is known for its conciliatory approach towards Beijing, a far cry from his predecessor Chen Shui-bian, who achieved acclaim by wagging his finger at Chinese intransigence.

Of course, Ma's pledge to normalise direct flights, contact and investments with China could be achieved in the months and years to come without much fuss. These are positive developments. However, he has to be careful not to be carried away by cross-straits euphoria. Ma, who has strong backing in the US  Congress, has to balance Taiwan's traditional ties with the US to ensure that whatever he plans to do with China does not upset this delicate relationship. During the previous presidency, Chen often upset Washington with his daring comments that Taiwan was ready to go the way of independence. That kind of position repeatedly put the US in a difficult position, which ended up with a tougher stance from the US. It is one thing to assert Taiwan's identity and democratic values and it is another to talk about independence. By law, the Taiwan Act of 1979 requires the US to defend Taiwan against foreign aggression.

Recently Ma said that reunification with China would not be achieved in our lifetime. If that is the case, he has a major responsibility to maintain Taiwan's position in the world without angering Beijing. Taiwan has yet to come up with a foreign policy that utilises its strengths - its vast foreign reserves and democracy. The island's diplomacy is too geared toward the US and Japan. Better ties with China under Ma would allow Taiwan some room to promote ties with Asean.

Maintaining the status quo and sticking to the 1992 agreement governing Taiwan's cross-straits relations is a good starting point. But the problem remains that Beijing's attitude toward Ma and his Kuomintang could change over time. After the Olympics, China's status and political clout will increase. Beijing's foreign policy will also become more assertive. Therefore, more and more pressure from Beijing can be expected. International recognition would also increase. The number of countries with diplomatic ties with Taiwan could sink to a single-digit number from the current 23 nations that recognise it.

In the past several years, Thailand has not paid enough attention to Taiwan, unlike other Asean countries such as Singapore and Vietnam, which continue to engage the island. Doubtless, Taiwan's investment in Thailand has dwindled greatly compared to the past decade. Instead, Taiwanese businessmen now prefer Vietnam and its favourable political environment. Today, Taiwan hosts the largest number of Thai overseas workers - 120,000 last year. Any change in the foreign labour quota would affect Thailand, particularly the Northeast. Already, Vietnamese labourers are increasing in number. The Thai government should not be complacent concerning the new dynamic in Taiwan. More attention and effort should be given to Taiwan.