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It is a win-win for the Burmese junta again

Asean decided not to upset Burma. The group just created an atmosphere conducive to facilitate aid



Asean has once again put up a brave face to rescue Burma, its most notorious family members. The grouping knows this is the best way out of a very bad situation for the time being. Therefore, it is not the time to get mad or get even with Burma. Nor is it useful to cry over spilt milk or condemn Burma's failure to speed up aid deliveries.

Throughout the past 17 days, the whole world has witnessed the heartless Burmese junta react to its millions of suffering people. Deep down, the Asean foreign ministers have felt the pain. But they also know that they have to deal with Burma for months and years to come.

Future rehabilitation and recovery efforts will take time to bring normalcy to the affected families and reconstruction to the areas destroyed in the Irrawaddy basin. There is no need to push Burma because it is fruitless. Asean has learned that lesson well in the past decade since Burma's admission in 1997.

Given the scope of the catastrophe, Asean decided not to upset Burma. Instead, the group has created an atmosphere conducive to facilitate aid deliveries and relief workers for both Asean and the international community.

The statement issued yesterday by Singapore, as chair of Asean, was in such a stark contrast with the previous one issued last September when Asean expressed "revulsion" against the Burmese junta's actions against demonstrators. This time, the statement expressed sympathy and deep concern over the massive loss of lives and devastation caused by Cyclone Nargis.

Asean foreign ministers agreed that Burma should be given more time to sort things out itself, even though UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has said that there is no more time to lose. Asean does not intervene in domestic affairs, even if millions of people are suffering. Member countries can only offer help when a concerned member has the courage to invite further engagement, just as Indonesia has done in East Timor and Aceh.

In Singapore, Asean foreign ministers gave a leading role to the new Asean Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan, who took the job three months ago. He will lead a task force that will work closely with the UN and the Burmese junta.  As head of the task force, he needs to coordinate all UN-related relief efforts and emergencies and at the same time ensure that humanitarian assistance isgiven quickly and to targeted areas.

In the near future, the task force will certainly come out with a blueprint of strategies to help Burma. Last week, Surin met with World Bank president Robert Zoellick to discuss the best way to help Burma. They agreed on a joint action plan that will increase the Asean Secretariat's capacities and capabilities to handle emergencies and its construction. Asean hopes to use the experience of Asean countries, affected by the 2004 tsunami and earthquakes in Indonesia in 2005, for facilitating the distribution of aid in Burma. It is a tall order. For Burma, it is still a win-win situation.

The statement does not make any commitment that Burma has agreed to take more international relief aid. Future admission of foreign aid and relief officials still depends on the Burmese junta. These requests would be considered case by case as the junta has done previously.

Furthermore, by offering to host the Asean-UN International Pledging Conference, Burma hopes to dampen down the growing chorus of criticism against the junta, especially the recent calls by France for some form of humanitarian intervention that will increase the flow of aid to affected people.

Rangoon snubbed Thailand, which has previously offered to host the meeting. Earlier Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama offered Don Mueang Airport as an international hub for foreign aid coordination. But for some reason Asean did not heed the call.

It is interesting to watch how Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath will affect the overall situation inside Burma, especially the legitimacy of the military junta leaders. They have demonstrated to the Burmese people that they care more about their political survival than the public mass that they claim to protect and serve.


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