Crises evidence world is more complex

The world is getting more and more complicated and several problems have long been piling up.

Financial crises are not new. Why is it that a well-developed economy such as the US could not prevent the sub-prime crisis?

Risk assessment is beyond human capability. Ratings agencies in the US failed in the risk evaluation associated with macroeconomic scenarios when they rated asset-backed bonds, while former Federal Reserve chairmanAlan Greenspan cut the policy rate too much and for too long.

Will the sub-prime crisis end now?

I don't think so. There may be a second-round effect, rising bad debts in the US or maybe adverse effects on manufacturing in China and India.

How will the baht move against the US dollar for the rest of year? Some analysts  predict it might strengthen 10 per cent.

It depends how serious the impact of the sub-prime crisis is.

A deeper impact would weaken the dollar and the baht would rise substantially.

Should we cut excise tax to lessen the impact of high retail oil prices?

A tax cut would not help much - we should seriously implement energy conservation.

Should we introduce nuclear energy to mitigate the cost of imported oil?

 The risk is high due to the rampant corruption in our political system. How could people trust the safety standards? However, if the world economy is hit hard by high oil prices, many countries will shift towards nuclear energy.

As Thailand is the largest rice exporter, do we gain from high prices for fuel and food?

No. Gains from rice exports could cushion to some degree the serious adverse effect of crude-oil prices.

When will the world food crisis end?

It may be more than than two years due to so many causes, including climate change and the conversion of food to fuel production.