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Published on April 4, 2008

First, Kuthep Saikrachang, spokesman for the People Power Party, came out to slam Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej over his poor performance. Implicit in his remarks was that Samak, who is an outsider from the PPP viewpoint, had already enjoyed his payback. It is time for him to go.

Second, big-time politicians in the PPP are about to launch a forceful drive for a drastic Constitution overhaul. They know that doing so will attract fierce opposition and will potentially lead to confrontation or clashes on the streets. They also want to hasten the demise of the Samak government once, of course, the business of rewriting the Constitution is finished.

All of these tricks are taking place only two months after the Samak government assumed power.

This is rare in Thai political history: a sitting government is a source of political instability itself, and is doing everything to hasten its own collapse instead of trying to hang on for the full four-year term.

Most Thais have accepted the outcome of the December 2007 election that put the PPP - a reincarnation of the Thai Rak Thai Party - into power. After two years of political impasse, including the coup that went wrong, the Thai people are willing to give the Samak government a chance to really do its job.

The main task of the government is to ensure political stability, tackle the low economic growth rate, create jobs and tame the inflationary pressure triggered by energy and food price rises. If the Samak government can start up one of the proposed mega-projects, it will help kick in private investment, which will create a multiple effect on economic expansion, adding new jobs to the market. 

How can this happen if People Power wants to remove its prime minister? Moreover, it also wants to invite political confrontation by proposing a rewrite of the Constitution at this early stage instead of tackling the economic problems. Most people now are seeing that the PPP wants to rewrite the Constitution to serve its own benefit rather than focus on the country's real problems.

Investors and political analysts are concerned about the political instability that might arise from the possible dissolution of the Chat Thai, Matchima and People Power parties for alleged election fraud. Another worrying development is the re-emergence of the People's Alliance for Democracy, which was a catalyst in bringing down the Thaksin government in 2006.

Going back to the euphoria of the People Power election victory in December 2007, you might recall that nobody expected Samak to become prime minister. People Power fielded Samak as its leader because it wanted him to serve as an opposition leader in Parliament. So when Samak took the highest political office in the land, the signal from People Power was that he should stay only for a year at most and then dissolve Parliament after completing the rewrite of the Constitution.

But Samak has rebelled. He wants to run the country his own way and will only initiate constitutional amendments in the waning months of his four-year term. Samak's rebellion has upset ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is believed to have dug into his deep pockets for People Power.

The name of the game for People Power now is the rewrite of the Constitution. This will serve mainly to nullify the laws created by a military installed interim government. The party wants to whitewash the graft cases against Thaksin, avoid party dissolution and restore legitimacy back to the 111 banned executives of the defunct Thai Rak Thai.

Thaksin's game plan is moving in accordance with the script. People Power is zeroing in on Article 309, looking to amend it to nullify the Assets Examination Committee, set up by the military after the coup to go after Thaksin. But the legal effect of scrapping Article 309 is still open to debate. Articles 69 and 237 involve political party dissolution if party executives knowingly commit election fraud.

There is a bumpy road ahead over the bid to rewrite the Constitution, potentially pushing the country into more political confrontation. During this time, Thaksin can always claim that he is out of power and has nothing to do with it.

But you can place your bets now as to who will be the first go: Manchester City's Sven Goran Eriksson or Samak.

Thanong Khanthong

thanong@nationgroup.com