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Published on March 14, 2008

Who could have believed that Chalerm Yoobamrung would take over as interior minister? Who could have expected that Thaksin Shinawatra would return home with even more clout after having placed himself in exile for over 15 months? And who could have believed that the ruling party in Malaysia, Barisan National, would suffer its worst loss in 40 years by losing a two-thirds majority control of Parliament?

Now, it seems that global investors favour Thai stocks over Malaysian stocks because they increasingly believe that Thailand has more political stability than Malaysia. How can that be? In politics, anything that is impossible is possible.

Pundits earlier warned the Samak government, formed by six coalition parties, might not last long. Samak would have a difficult time managing his coalition partners, particularly with the dark shadow of Thaksin looming over the Cabinet. The conventional view was that soon the coalition partners would run into conflict, eventually bringing down the government. 

As it turns out, Samak has proved to be the savvy political veteran that he is and has run the show pretty well. So far he has been able to portray himself as a leader who is independent of any vested interests or powerful cliques. Most important, he has sent out a signal that he will serve as premier for the full term.

You can't underestimate Samak. He was interior minister at 39. At 44, he was communications minister. He headed the Prachakorn Thai Party, which swept the Bangkok elections. He was Bangkok governor. He had a TV talk show. He got elected as a senator and planned to retire after that role when the coup took place. Most important, as a former Democrat himself, Samak knows the opposition Democrat Party inside out. Now, at 73, Samak has nothing else to prove, except to do well for himself.

What would you do if you were Thaksin - who remains very influential behind the People Power Party? The answer is easy. Thaksin should let Samak play his game, because what Samak is doing now benefits Thaksin in almost every way.

First, Samak presents the image of a royalist. This strength will compensate for Thaksin's weakness. Some of Thaksin's remarks have been seen as disrespectful to the monarchy.

Second, Samak has quickly allied himself with the military. As the defence minister, Samak has tried not to rock the boat. He has been able to get along with the military establishment. He has let Gen Anupong Paochinda, the Army chief, accompany him on several occasions. This has given assurance to the public that the military is staying in the barracks.

Third, Samak knows how to deal with the media. His quick tongue can put reporters on the defensive because he himself used to be a journalist. In other words, he knows how to fight his way out of a corner and talk back, at times in crude language. And sometimes this enhances his popularity.

Fourth, Samak still offers good protection, at least verbally, to Thaksin and members of the People Power Party. He has defended Thaksin's loyalty to the monarchy. He has come out to say that certain ministers in his Cabinet, including Dr Surapong Suebwonglee, the finance minister, do not need to resign from their positions even though they are being investigated in connection with the Asset Examination Committee's wholesale charges against the Thaksin Cabinet regarding the lottery scandal.

Samak's only condition is that Thaksin and others let him be himself. In the twilight of his career, this is his last act on the political stage. He is not expected to amass any fortune. He only wants to serve for the best.

By the way, Thaksin has also mentioned that he has washed his hands of politics. He might find it wiser now to stay behind the scenes rather than try to re-enter politics directly, as this would certainly trigger more resistance from the Bangkok middle class. Thaksin is now confident in the political course, but he can't predict the final outcome of the court rulings against him.

For the time being, Thai politics should enter a calm period. Political scandals are unlikely to bring down the government easily because People Power controls almost 50 per cent of Parliament. Two or three parties leaving the government won't bring Samak down. Samak can hang on for the long term. If Thaksin or any of the 111 former executives of the Thai Rak Thai party (who have been barred from politics) would like him to introduce amnesty legislation for them, Samak can always resort to delaying tactics, right until the last minute, in order to preserve his premiership as long as possible.

Samak is in for the duration.

thanong@nationgroup.com

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation