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Published on February 28, 2008

Three years of political crisis, a military coup in September 2006, and more recently a general election, have done little to resolve the deep discord inThailand. Thaksin still finds that while half of the country loves him, the other half hates him.

Nobody knows how the country will handle Thaksin, who is still recognised as the most influential politician in practical terms.

"It depends on Thaksin's behaviour. How will he portray himself before the public now that his party has won the election? It will not bode well if his supporters make raucous noises while his opponents adopt a wait-and-see attitude," said Dr Phairoj Wongviphanond, a well-known academic.

Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party has been resurrected as the People Power Party, which won the election and is now running a coalition government. Remnants of his regime have gradually bounced back to life, from those in the police force, public prosecutors, the military and local politicians, to the vast network of supporters.

Still, Thaksin has been barred from politics for five years by a Constitution Tribunal ruling last May. He is also facing criminal cases that he has to defend himself against.

Upon his arrival, Thaksin is expected to turn himself in to face charges related to the Bt772-million Ratchadaphisek land deal. Thaksin plans to seek bail with a plea to be allowed to go abroad for business.

Thaksin has got clearances from the powers-that-be for his return. The next battle lies in the courts of justice.

Some say the former premier will not stay in Thailand for too long as he does not want to show that he is imposing himself on the politics here. Most importantly, he does not want to give the impression that he might be tampering with the judicial process.

Last Friday, Sompong Amornwiwat, the new justice minister, removed the head of the Department of Special Investigation as his first order of business. The DSI is handling several cases against Thaksin, with the asset-concealment case involving SC Assets standing out as the most crucial.

"Thaksin's return will only be a short-term boost for the Stock Exchange of Thailand," a stock analyst said. "The bigger issue to watch is People Power's handling of Thaksin's court cases, amnesty for the 111 banned MPs and perceived interference in independent organisations that are supposed to perform checks and balances on the government. The ball is in People Power's court."

Still, the timing of Thaksin's return is not ideal. The Samak government has yet to show any performance. The government has not yet been able to reshuffle the military to its liking. Thaksin's presence might stir suspicions that any tampering by the government of the justice process are influenced by him.

But political sources indicate that Thaksin would like to deal with the mess in the coalition government because Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej appears to have broken ranks while other coalition partners are going their own ways in pursuit of their own interests.

 Besides, Thaksin needs to fight the court cases against him, which are something he cannot avoid anyway.

The People's Alliance for Democracy, which acted as the catalyst for Thaksin's downfall in 2006, has vowed to stage a symbolic comeback if Thaksin attempts to interfere with the judiciary. But support for the PAD is not forthcoming for now. Thaksin's supporters have also vowed to clash head-on with the PAD if the anti-Thaksin group resumes its street demonstrations.

The end of the road still lies far ahead as the battle in the judiciary is about to be renewed.

Yonyuth Tiyaphairat, the House speaker, has already received a red card from the Election Commission. He will have to defend himself in the Supreme Court for political cases. If he is found guilty, People Power might have to be dissolved.

The Political Desk

The Nation