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Published on February 13, 2008

Any observer watching events in East Timor must fear that further terrible deeds could occur. Recent history gives us clues to the ominous possibilities. Almost all of the armed forces were dismissed and the whole of the police force collapsed during civil unrest in 2006. Later, a breakaway faction of soldiers rebelled and caused turmoil, forcing over 100,000 people to flee. Since independence in 2002, East Timor has had serious trouble moving forward and making use of its new-found freedom as many people would have anticipated. Thus, when a group of rebels were able to shoot President Jose Ramos-Horta in the stomach and chest early on Monday morning, it was as if the country's worst nightmare had come true. At the moment his condition is stable but he is still in a very serious condition. What is worse, Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, the former president, was also targeted in the attack. Luckily he was not wounded. But there could be further assassination attempts.

When the two most important leaders of a country are targeted for killing - and assailants able to achieve apparently easy access to them - nobody can be at peace, either at home or aboard.

President Jose Ramos-Horta, the 1996 Nobel Prize winner, seems to have nine lives. For over two decades he roamed the world, fighting for his country's independence. Known for his oratory skills and charismatic smile, he made the plight of East Timor known internationally. Over the past four years he has served as East Timor's foreign minister, then briefly as prime minister, before contesting the presidential election last year. His people are poor, but the fledgling country has substantial gas and oil deposits that offer the potential of billions of dollars of much-needed revenue each year. The new president wants to help modernise East Timor.

Throughout this time, Ramos-Horta has tried to highlight East Timor's strategic importance. The country is located between Southeast Asia and the South Pacific archipelago. At first he was lukewarm about the idea of East Timor becoming a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), preferring to see his country become a member of the South Asia Forum. Now he has a new vision, perceiving East Timor as a bridge between the two regions. He also thinks his country can bolster Asean's cultural diversity because of the its rich colonial heritage. But the latest crisis shows East Timor must bite the bullet and make bold reforms in various sectors, especially those related to security. The ongoing conflict between the country's military and police continues unabated.

After the downfall of former Indonesian President Suharto in 1998, his successor, BJ Habibie, backed a UN-sponsored referendum on the future of East Timor. The East Timorese people voted over 90 per cent in favour of independence. However, the Indonesian authorities reacted to that outcome very badly. They backed local pro-Jakarta militias, who went on a murderous rampage, and virtually destroyed the former Portuguese colony in the process.

With international assistance, East Timor might be able to remedy the divide that has existed since independence. Because, if underlying frustrations within the security forces and government remain, it can only further destabilise the country - and the UN and international peacekeeping forces may be hard-pressed to protect all of East Timor's long-suffering citizens. Obviously, the attempted assassination of Ramos-Horta - believed to be part of an attempted coup - shows that security problems need to be addressed immediately.

It is unfortunate that within just five years of independence, Asia's newest nation is in such a political mess. The latest development has also dashed any further hope of East Timor becoming a member of Asean in the foreseeable future. For years, Indonesia opposed East Timor's membership, but recently Jakarta has welcomed the idea of Dili joining Asean's ranks. Indeed, before the unrest and the attempted assassination, the country was well positioned to join Asean. Dili signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in January last year. Furthermore, its officials are allowed to attend Asean meetings, and some of them have been trained by the Asean Secretariat in Jakarta.

Now the country will have to wait until domestic stability has been established. Only then can this tiny nation of 800,000 people have any chance of joining its Asean neighbours.

The Nation