• 
• 

Published on February 10, 2008

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's declaration of his high aims in pushing for mega-projects - which include mass-transit rail systems and drawing water from the Mekong River to irrigate the country's drought-hit northeastern region - may seem like a bright light of hope for members of the private sector looking to invest in those schemes. However, despite great public expectations and the fact that they have full government support, the future of these projects is not totally certain due to the political risk brought about by the volatile nature of a government coalition made up of several political parties.

Samak's proposal of nine rapid-transit routes in particular was not new to the Thai public, and was among the mega-projects highlighted by the government of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The Thaksin government had pushed heavily for many mass-transit projects - once even invited representatives of foreign embassies to attend a briefing at Government House held exclusively to promote the schemes.

The interim administration of Surayud Chulanont set up after the coup, however, took a more cautious stance in regards to these projects and approved only three of them. The three approved routes are the 23-kilometre Bang Sue-Bang Yai connection, the 15-kilometre Bang Sue-Taling Chan connection and a 26-kilometre stretch between Bang Sue and Rangsit. The first Bt31-billion route is officially called the Purple Line, and the second and third routes are part of the Bt59-billion Red Line. Four more routes - Sukhumvit Soi 107-Samut Prakan, Morchit-Sapan Mai, Bang Sue-Tha Phra and Hua Lampong-Bang Khae - are pending Cabinet approval. Additional rail transit lines that are currently the subject of feasibility studies include routes extending to major suburbs such as Khae Rai, Chaeng Wattana, Tiwanon and Suwinthawong.

These mass-transit projects will need huge budget allocations for construction and operation and the source of this money is a big question facing the new government. The Finance Ministry's Public Debt Management Office has proposed issuing long-term bonds to partly cover the costs and many have welcomed the idea as a feasible solution. The point of investment, however, is not the only factor to consider, since the future of the projects will also rest on how actively and willingly the ministry in charge of the schemes will push for their implementation.

The sooner the government gets the mass-transit plans started, the better it will be. Investment poured into these projects will not only help stimulate the economy as a whole, but it will also have a positive psychological effect on investors and the general public. The price of land along mass-transit routes in Bangkok and in the suburbs will significantly increase and will consequently lead to more property development and other related activities.

The factor that will finally determine the future of the mass-transit projects is not money but politics.

Thai politics has a tricky nature in which situations keep changing as politicians in charge of ministries conduct their power plays. Discord and vested interests do exist among political parties and sometimes it is hard for them to avoid conflict when they have to work together.

Since the Transport Ministry is in charge of many mega-projects that involve huge investments and serve the general public's needs, it is understandable why political parties want their own man at its helm.

The formation of the Samak government was no exception and political jockeying over the transport portfolio was evident before the final decision was made. New Transport Minister Santi Prompat was not the definite choice from the very beginning, and there was at least one other candidate, former deputy Bangkok governor Sahas Bunditkul, who was reportedly preferred for the post by Samak himself. Santi, a party-list MP from the People Power Party, however, finally won the post. This is clear evidence of how major decisions in Thai politics are chiefly determined by political rather than practical factors. The same is true for the mass-transit projects that Samak has vowed to push.

Financial risk is not the most serious obstacle for their future; political risk is.

The Nation