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Published on February 10, 2008

Well-read beyond his 13 years, Sam, a Nepali growing up in Thailand, says his homeland can learn to share power more peaceably among its various ethnic groups. "People say Nepal could be a Switzerland, and I believe that," says Sam, who attended a recent gathering of the Non-Resident Nepali Association (NRNA), at Bangkok's Landmark Hotel. The evening featured speeches and dances to celebrate the bestowing of the Prince Mahidol Award on Dr Sanduk Ruit, a Nepali ophthalmologist who developed a system to safely and affordably remove cataracts.

"The only problem is with the government," says Sam, who has lots of cousins in western Nepal and Kathmandu and visits his homeland once a year.

From 1996 to 2006 Nepal was wrenched by a civil war that killed 12,700 people before an armistice allowed the Maoist rebels to take part in the interim parliament.

"We in Nepal are going through an extremely dramatic series of events," says Nepal Times editor Kunda Dixit. "We are a royal republic … a Maoist monarchy.

"The Maoists now have a chance to reconstruct what they destroyed during the war. But don't count the monarchy out," he stresses, noting that the king still has significant military support.

Nepal's new Constituent Assembly, scheduled to be voted into office on April 10, will decide if the country becomes a republic or remains some type of constitutional monarchy. In December the interim parliament voted to abolish the monarchy and establish a republic.

"I am in favour of constitutional monarchy, but it's too late - it cannot be revived," says Nepali Samudra Man Bajracharya of Suruchui Travel, who's been based in Thailand for the last four years.

Developments cannot be reversed, he says, predicting that the assembly will make Nepal a republic.

"In my opinion it's too early. At this moment the situation is full of disturbances. Even the senior politicians are worried."

Splinter Maoist groups, Bajracharya warns, cause uncertainty about any peace between the tentative government of mainstream Maoists and major political parties.

He monthly flies to Kathmandu on business and to see his wife, who looks after the travel agency's branch there. Despite the latest attempts to foster democracy, he says, "Very much these days, people in Nepal are pessimistic."

Rocky Limbu, one of the many Nepalis who work in tailor shops in Bangkok's touristy Banglamphu area, is also concerned about his country's future, whether it's a modified monarchy under King Gyanendra or a nascent republic.

While dismissing the ideas of Maoist leader Prachanda as "100-per-cent bunk", Limbu also criticises the squabbling political parties. Moreover, he says, the weakened king is in no position to help, since he is deeply unpopular, especially since soldiers under his command cracked down on pro-democracy protests in 2006.

"Nepal will never have a king so loved by the people as you see in Thailand," he says.

Limbu has a sister and three brothers in Pokhara, the western Nepal tourist haven.

"I was worried about them during the civil war. I don't want to be part of the problem; I want to save my life."

Similarly worried about her family in Nepal during the war was Rita Shanu, who lives with a brother, sister and their mother in Bangkok.

She wears a smile of excitement at the Landmark as she watches dozens of immaculately dressed Thai-Nepalis.

"I love my culture. I love my language," says Shanu, adding that she hopes for sustainable peace, no what kind of government that may entail. "I want to see good relations between Nepalis and Nepalis."

When asked about the troubles back home, the NRNA's president in Thailand, Ramesh Hamal, says all countries have their problems, but relations among Nepalis are generally warm.

Bursting with optimism, he says times are much better now than they were during the war.

"Nepalis are coming back home. It's reverse brain drain. So we've started brainstorming over how to help Nepal and promote Nepal. Business is going well, hydropower is going well, tourism is going well."

Hamal's confidence is in no small way related to the vast economic growth enjoyed by Nepal's neighbours in recent years. "China and India are the two rising giants in Asia," he says, "and the easiest way to connect them is by going through Nepal."

Two centuries ago, though, taking up space between the two Asian monoliths wasn't necessarily a blessing.

King Prithvi Narayan Shah, the creator of modern Nepal, who in 1768 conquered and unified the peoples of the Kathmandu Valley, likened his precarious kingdom to a yam between two rocks - India and China. He understood that Nepal was a patchwork of different ethnic groups nestled into various hard-to-reach hilly enclaves, which made the country hard to invade, rule - and hold together.

In the midst of Nepal's challenges, Purna Chandra Lall Rajbhandari, who works under the Asian Institute of Technology with the Regional Resource Centre for the United Nations Environmental Programme, says only strong leadership can bring about good governance. He says it may take four to six years to get the country back on track.

"Every ethnic group will have access to the new Constituent Assembly. That's where their voices will be heard. It doesn't matter what system of government we have as long as there is a good and honest leader.

"Nepal has much potential."

Carleton Cole

The Nation