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REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Thailand's foreign horizons are shrinking

As the new government under incoming prime minister Samak Sundaravej takes final shape, squabbling among the six-party coalition over Cabinet portfolios continues unabated.

Published on February 4, 2008



However, there is one portfolio that nobody wants: the Foreign Affairs Ministry.

There have been many shortlisted candidates. Some of the names would cause not only laughter, but also headaches. This demonstrates how Thai politicians fail to pay attention to diplomacy, which in past centuries has been a pivotal tool to maintain the country's independence from colonial rule.

Now it is as certain as sunrise in the morning that the future Thai foreign minister will be the very person who has fought most fiercely for deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, both in public and in court - Noppadon Pattama, a former King's scholarship recipient. Before he joined the now-defunct Thai Rak Thai party, he was a Democrat and served as secretary to former foreign minister Surin Pitsuwan from 1997 to 2001. It will be the first time a Thai foreign minister will have a background as a lawyer and been exposed to the judicial system.

Samak's foreign-policy team is crucial to restoring the country's credibility and international standing. The government has to be mindful of the uphill task it faces and the diplomatic manoeuvres that will be required in the months and years ahead. One caveat is in order: any attempt to revive the bruising diplomatic style of leadership and engagement of the Thaksin years (2001 to 2006) - especially towards Asean and Burma - could spell disaster from the very beginning.

The horizons of Thailand's foreign diplomacy have been shrinking fast since 2001. Thailand thought, erroneously, that it could expand its role in Asia simply through rhetoric and public relations. Thaksin's arrogance and can-do personality made his regional blueprint unattainable. He wanted to be a regional leader in the same league as Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew and Malaysia's Mahathir Mohamad but he did not have the tenacity and respect both men enjoyed through time-tested leadership. At the Asean Summit in Vientiane in 2004, Thaksin became the first Asean leader to threaten to boycott the meeting, saying he would do so if the situation in southern Thailand were raised.

His brainchild, the Asia-wide cooperation scheme known as the Asian Cooperation Dialogue (ACD), is going nowhere. He thought it would serve as a foreign-policy tool with two primary  objectives - promoting Thailand's position of eminence and highlighting the imperative of Asia-wide cooperation with him at centre stage. It was also linked to Bangkok's aborted and painful bid for the UN secretary-general position.

The first objective was a huge flop, which was inevitably linked to the privatisation of Thai foreign policy to suit Thaksin's needs and vested interests. Non-Asean members such as China, Kuwait, Bahrain and others found the ACD useful as a forum to have unstructured dialogue and form informal caucuses. That much was clear.

Like Thaksin, Samak is better known for his quick-firing foul mouth than he is for his intellect. He has much to learn from other regional leaders. Being a Thai prime minister this year is significant in many ways. First of all, Thailand will host the 14th annual Asean Summit later this year. This will be the second summit held in Bangkok. As the summit host, Samak has to chair all sessions with the leaders of 16 countries including Asean, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

Samak must avoid the pitfallsof former premier Banharn Silapa-archa, who chaired the Bangkok summit in December 1995. It was dubbed the "No Problem Summit" because throughout the closed-door discussions and consultations among Asean leaders, Banharn kept saying "mai mee panha" (no problem) in response to new initiatives put forward by Asean leaders over the Mekong region. His quick and habitual replies of "no problem" had far-reaching implications for Thailand's role in current Mekong development efforts: other non-riparian countries now play much more enthusiastic developmental roles.

Provided he lasts until December, Samak must immerse himself in Asean affairs and determine how Thailand can best resume a proactive role in the grouping, which has been the country's diplomatic benchmark since its founding. The litmus test will be whether he can convince the remaining eight Asean countries to ratify the Asean Charter before he chairs the summit later this year. In Singapore, the grouping's leaders pledged to expedite the ratification process within a year.

Thailand also must support Dr Surin Pitsuwan, who is currently heading the Asean Secretariat. The Foreign Ministry has to be aware that in case of any emergency, especially when extra funding is needed, the ministry must be ready to respond. Following the postponement of the Asean summit in Cebu from December 2006 to January 2007, the Asean Secretariat had a budget deficit, which was met in a timely manner by Singapore.

While the international community has welcomed the newly elected government, it is also closely monitoring Thailand's policy towards Burma. Since September's bloodshed in Rangoon, the attitude of the UN, including UN Security Council members and Asean, has toughened. If Bangkok chooses to follow the same shameful Burmese policy of the Thaksin years, Thailand's recovery from the long years of condemnation and despair will be fruitless.

For Noppadon, his top priority is very clear. He must show in sustained and tangible ways that he is the spokesman of Thai foreign policy, not Thaksin's personal policy.

Kavi Chongkittavorn

The Nation


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