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Published on February 4, 2008

A leading political action group yesterday warned that the apparent "puppet" status of the Samak government would be its undoing and predicted the administration could soon come under pressure from four sectors of society.

The Campaign for Popular Democracy called the Cabinet of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, which has yet to be officially announced, a "puppet Cabinet" due to alleged connections between several prospective ministers and more superior elements who are not entitled to hold legitimate official posts.

CPD secretary-general Suriyasai Katasila said most Cabinet members would be nominees of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is facing charges for alleged corruption, or leaders of factions from the dissolved Thai Rak Thai Party who have been banned from politics for five years.

These people would "pull the strings" from outside Govern-ment House, he said.

"The decision making will be mostly outside Government House - both inside and outside the country, unlike past Cabinets," Suriyasai said.

"We see several Cabinet members will have to wait for orders from those who are in power."

Suriyasai also warned that economic problems caused by populist policies of the former Thai Rak Thai regime as well as political woes could prompt the four groups to demonstrate against the government.

He said the CPD believed the Samak coalition's term would be shorter than that of the Surayud government because problems from past policies would emerge and bring it down.

The government would definitely face strong protests if it fails to find concrete measures to resolve problems within five months, he said.

The rural folk or farmers would be the first group to rally because populist policies by the Thaksin government had placed them deep in debt, Suriyasai said.

The government also faces protests from workers seeking higher pay and improved welfare to offset inflation and a higher cost of living.

The middle class, who are most affected by the worsening US credit crisis and a global economic slowdown, would also protest if their situation deteriorated.

Suriyasai said members of the former People's Alliance for Democracy would also stage rallies if the government tried to interfere with the judicial process or help Thaksin and enact a law that would lift the ban on ex-Thai Rak Thai executives.

Suriyasai said the Samak government should learn from past mistakes to avoid repeating them.

Meanwhile, Democrat spokesman Ong-art Klampai-boon said his party would give the Samak government a chance to tackle the country's problems.

But the government must resist corruption as it would further damage the country, he said.

The Democrats will immediately check such abuses if they surfaced, he said.

Trakul Meechai, a political scientist from Chulalongkorn University, said it was difficult for a coalition government to serve its full term.

The government's stability is mainly up to the coalition alliances, he said. There were problems even assigning ministers, while the People Power Party had fewer than half the House seats and the party had divisions.

"We can't say that the coalition parties will certainly stay with the PPP government for better or worse," Trakul said.

Profit negotiations and whether policy administration would cause conflicts will also be factors, he said.

Considering a Cabinet line-up that even premier Samak admitted was not the best, it would be easy for the government to make mistakes.

The government should be able to enjoy a honeymoon period until the funeral of Her Royal Highness Princess Galyani Vadhana is completed, Trakul said.

However, the qualifications of the prime minister and serious economic problems might have a big impact on the government. Another factor was how Samak treats protesters.

The opposition Democrat Party's shadow cabinet could only point to the weaknesses in the government's administration and use the information in a censure debate.

As it lacked adequate votes to form a government, the Democrat Party is not expected to topple the government but to take time in convincing voters and build its popularity until the next election, Trakul said.

Ramkhamhaeng University political scientist Sukhum Nualsakul said he did not see any reason for the government not to serve its term. Mobs cannot topple the government by themselves, he said.

But if the government does something unacceptable, such as dissolving the Assets Examination Committee or rescinding laws about conflicts of interest passed by the National Legislative Assembly, then it cannot stay on even for just a day, he said.

Mobs may protest if problems such as further oil price hikes cause public hardship.

Wattana Khamchoo,

Kornchanok Raksaseri

The Nation