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Published on February 1, 2008

However, I cannot claim to have a profound understanding of Japan. All the same, I do believe that the future of Japan and the future of Asia and the world are inextricably linked.

Over the past decade, many people have pondered what role Japan should play on the global stage in light of the post-Cold War realities. In six decades, Japan has picked itself up from the ashes of war to become the world's second largest economy. It is not only Japan that has changed. The world has become immensely more complex since the uni-polarity of the immediate post-Cold War years. The United States' air of omnipotence, once seemingly indisputable, has been deflated, with the costly misadventure in Iraq and sub-prime crisis likely to preoccupy it for years to come. China and India have awoken from their slumber and are poised to change the world's power equation in the coming decades. Russia has gone from superpower to nearly failed state and back again to assert itself in international politics. Southeast Asia is stepping up the pace of its integration.

Of course, it would be foolhardy to predict what these developments portend for the next decade. But if current trends continue, a major power realignment looks likely. At least for the next few years, the US will have to focus on regaining its economic health and restoring its credibility abroad. China and India, barring any upsets, are likely to continue their growth trajectory and emerge at the top tier of the world's largest economies.

Amidst all this, Japan may find itself in the unaccustomed position of having to work more closely with its partners and potential competitors in Asia and less closely with its traditional main ally, the US. As the much vaunted Asian Century becomes reality, a more proactive and independent Japan that works in close partnership with its neighbours, will be crucial. 

To play this role, Japan needs to articulate a clear vision and hone its political effectiveness. So far, Japan has not shared with the world a clear vision of its future political and economic direction. Will Japan continue to be the US's "unsinkable aircraft carrier" in Asia, or will it seek greater policy autonomy?

Japan's defence budget is now one of the five largest in the world. Japan is also expanding its security role, partly at the urging of the US. But its domestic politics - its lack of a strong, coherent political leadership - seems to have held Japan back from formulating the vision it needs. With a growing military capability but without a clearly articulated vision and strategy, memories of the Second World War will persist, as will regional concerns over Japan's intentions.

This is all the more reason for Japan to enhance its political effectiveness. Since the Second World War, Japan's impact on international politics has been almost negligible. Japan has maintained a consistently low political profile. The resulting perception is that Japan has not demonstrated a willingness or ability to raise Asia's profile in international forums, whether political or economic, preferring the comfort and safety of America's shadow. The attitude and mindset underlying this passivity must change if Japan is to take its rightful place as a positive political force in Asian and world affairs.

With Asia rising, it makes sense to engage more effectively within the region. Japan already has a significant economic presence in its partner countries. It needs to make use of this presence to leverage its political standing in the region.

To achieve this, I believe Japan will have to confront and address a number of issues.

The first issue I see is one that some may attribute to culture, but which can also be thought of as communication style. One reason the Japanese mind is so mysterious to outsiders is that communications are so stylised, so carefully controlled to ensure politeness and harmony. Japan, it seems, is a consensus society that goes to great - some might say extreme - lengths to avoid public argument and confrontation. This kind of reticence, of course, is not particular to Japan. It can also be seen in some other Asian societies, including my own, that value social hierarchy and political correctness over substance.

If Japan is to play a leadership role in regional and global affairs, Japan must be more direct. And it must be more willing to risk disagreement in pursuit of truthful, positive answers.

This communication style leads us to the second issue: the lingering contentiousness of World War II history between Japan and its neighbours. After 60 years, it seems, Japan is still unable to come to terms with some aspects of the Second World War. This is understandable, as these are aspects Japan would rather forget.

What is rather surprising is that despite repeated apologies from Japanese leaders, there is a lingering perception that Japan prefers to remember history selectively and differently from the rest of Asia. This perception is not helped by the certification of revisionist history textbooks, nor by some past prime ministers' visits to Yasukuni Shrine.

Japan needs to come to terms with its history. If Japan could show that it takes the historical grievances of its neighbours seriously, I have no doubt that the past can be buried and all countries in the region can move forward together.

The third issue Japan needs to confront is its continuing dependence on the US security umbrella. In areas such as official development assistance, Japan has certainly been quite proactive. But the test is whether Japan can pursue policies that put the interests of Asia first and foremost, even in the face of US opposition.

Perhaps the best known test case is the proposal by Japan in 1997 to set up of an Asian Monetary Fund. Even before the details of such a fund had been worked out, Washington shot down the idea and it had to be withdrawn. Only much later, when it became clear that the AMF would not replace the IMF, did Washington's position soften.

If such a thing can happen on foreign economic policy, one would expect at least the same on political and security matters. The changing nature of security threats and the US preoccupation with terrorism and the Middle East call into question whether and how long the US nuclear umbrella will continue to effectively protect Japan. Without reducing this dependence on its big brother, it would be difficult for Japan to develop meaningful political relationships with other countries.

These are the three main impediments I see to Japan's playing a more significant role in the coming decade. To overcome them, Japan should be more assertive, show leadership, take the initiative, and be more innovative.

Keynote address by HE Anand Panyarachun, former prime minister of Thailand, GRIPS, Tokyo, January 31, 2008.

The Nation