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Published on January 21, 2008

The ministry's projection of 12.5-per-cent export growth was based on last year's robust growth and may not be easily achieved. Moreover, the baht's appreciation against the US dollar will hurt exporters' competitiveness.

A senior Commerce Ministry source said last week that 2007 exports were expected to have grown more than the ministry's projection of 16 per cent, valued at US$150.1 billion (Bt4.96 trillion).

The ministry will today officially announce last year's export value.

It will also revise its export projection for this year, once last year's value is known.

The current export target for this year is an increase of 12.5 per cent to $169.4 billion. The target is based on the baht valued at 33.50 a dollar and the average Dubai oil price at $85 per a barrel.

The source said exports in December alone were estimated to have grown more than 20 per cent or $13.3 billion, year on year. Exports in all sectors rose significantly last month.

Somjin Plengkhum, deputy director-general of the Export Promotion Department, said the strengthening of the baht at the start of the year would increase the difficulties exporters are already facing.

Last week the baht increased to 33.1 against the greenback, reaching a 10-year high.

The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce has also predicted that the baht will appreciate further to Bt32.50 against the dollar within the second quarter.

"The country's exports will record slower growth by the second quarter this year, as exporters normally place orders 3-6 months in advance," said Somjin.

Exporters have complained that their competitiveness has been greatly reduced due to the higher baht value. However, the impact of the strengthening currency should be lower than last year, as exporters have been striving to adjust their operations, she added.

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation