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Published on January 10, 2008

 The new Army chief, General Anupong Paochinda, didn't admit it in so many words, but he did indicate that the putsch was a failure. "The armed forces have nothing to do with politics now," he declared.

But his close senior colleague, outgoing Defence minister General Boonrod Somtad, was less emphatic. In fact, you could even say he was somewhat ambivalent over the question of whether we have seen the Kingdom's last coup.

"Coups are like a natural disaster. Nobody wants them to happen. But they do. And nobody can predict them," he said, almost deadpan.

Interestingly enough, in two separate Thai-language newspapers earlier this week, two well-respected senior academics wrote articles exploring the ways and means to put an end to the possibility of any future removal of a democratically-elected government through the use of military might.

No, they haven't found any new formula they consider more effective than the past. But, it nevertheless remains a main issue to confront and resolve if Thailand is to regain its position of political credibility in both the regional and international arenas.

Nidhi Ewsriwongse of Chiang Mai University says that the latest coup has plunged the armed forces into an "extremely unsettled position".

For the military to put a stop to such an unsavoury trend, the two obvious but "extreme" options to find a solution to the "coup-prone phenomenon", he suggests, are:

1. Go back to barracks and come under the supervision of politicians. This, however, could pit the military establishment against many other segments in Thai society.

2. Seize power completely and permanently and run the country's politics the way the armed forces see fit.

Both lead to dead-ends. Neither of these two choices is acceptable, Nidhi concludes, adding that the only practical solution may be somewhere in between. But then, the "middle path" isn't easy to find or negotiate.

The military can't expect "outsiders", especially politicians, to find the right option. "To go about locating the right path for themselves may also be somewhat too late, because even if an effective formula could be found, the armed forces have become too divided to make that happen now," the critic says.

Dr Prawase Wasi, in a separate treatise proposing "Six Principles for Thailand's Genuine Rehabilitation", said the armed forces should have learned by now that a military takeover of political power is not a difficult mission, but the post-coup management of the country is an impossible task.

The well-known social activist suggests, therefore, that soldiers must become "professional" and shouldn't take on any political role that will inevitably tarnish the military establishment and throw the country's democratic political machine off-balance.

That, of course, is easier said than done. As they say elsewhere, it takes two to tango.

"Professional" soldiers can't right the country's wrongs if politicians exploit their own power by politicising the military establishment to meet their political ends. Likewise, good, honest politicians have, in the past, fallen victim to politically ambitious and devious generals.

In the end, the so-called "middle way" to keep both soldiers and politicians honest and abiding by democratic principles can materialise only when they realise that they come under the close scrutiny of a concerned and informed public.

Unless we move seriously and vigorously towards creating an engaged and knowledgeable citizenry, the balance between political influence and military power will remain shaky. The rule of law must be upheld as the country's top priority. Laws ensuring the people's right to know must be strengthened. The system of checks and balances in all spheres must be firmly established and protected.

To make sure that corrupt politicians and misguided generals can't push the country down the road to disaster - or collude to plunder the country's treasures and resources - the general public must be empowered to prevent either party from assuming excessive power. That means a concerted effort is required to guarantee press freedom in a genuine way so that politicians can't manipulate public opinion through controlled mass media and the military won't be able to assign itself the role of an arbiter of what it claims to be "political stability".

Sixteen months ago, a strong premier was toppled because he was too scared of a strong public. The coup produced a feeble interim government because both the governor and the governed were equally weak. It's time to build a strong base to ensure active and robust public participation to keep the traditional pillars of power in a proper balance. That's where the real middle path lies.

By Suthichai Yoon