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Published on January 4, 2008

 By all appearances, the pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP) has managed to persuade five other smaller parties to join together to form a coalition government. The Democrat Party, the first runner-up in the election, has already made clear it would stay out of any PPP-led alliance and now looks set to become the opposition in the new House of Representatives. The six-party alliance is made up of the PPP, Chart Thai, Puea Pandin, Pracharaj, Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana and Matchima Tipataya parties. They are reportedly in the process of negotiating how to divide up the Cabinet portfolios. Whether the PPP-led alliance, which at the last count would control 315 seats in the 480-member House, will go on to take power depends on the outcome of the Election Commission's parallel validation and disqualification processes.

Yesterday, the EC validated the results of 397 winning candidates and withheld those of 83 MPs-elect pending investigations into cases of alleged electoral fraud. Most of the candidates whose fate still hangs in the balance were believed to be People Power members.

If the EC decides to disqualify more rather than a few PPP candidates - which would lead to second-round elections in many constituencies - the power equation could shift, and possibly lead to the alliance unravelling. In that event, the Democrat Party may consider taking the initiative to form an alternative coalition.

But mass disqualification of PPP candidates to a point where it would seriously affect the party's leadership in the alliance is considered highly unlikely. However, there are other factors that could affect the attempt by the PPP-led alliance to form the first civilian government since the September 2006 coup that toppled then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and led to the dissolution of his Thai Rak Thai Party.

The Supreme Court has scheduled next week to rule on whether three election-related cases merit judicial review. In one case, the PPP's legitimacy to contest the December 23 election was challenged by a Democrat candidate, Chaiwat Sinsuwong, who described the party as a nominee of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party. The complainant reasoned that the majority of PPP executives and candidates had contested last month's election on behalf of deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who, along with 110 other Thai Rak Thai executives, was banned from politics for five years. According to Chaiwat, the move was in breach of the spirit of the law barring politicians guilty of poll fraud from running as election candidates.

In the other two cases, the EC authority to organise advance voting, and its competence in ensuring fairness of such voting, were questioned by complainants. Court rulings on these cases could potentially lead to partial or total nullification of the December 23 election outcome - or they could have no effect on the poll results.

The election results and the ongoing attempt by political parties to form a coalition government are being closely watched by a divided nation.

The PPP won the most House seats thanks to votes from the rural masses in the North and Northeast, the traditional stronghold of Thaksin's now-defunct TRT Party. The Democrat Party received solid support from the urban middle class and people in the South. 

It remains to be seen how the unfolding political drama is going to play out. Eventually, a coalition government will take shape, one way or another, to take over power from the military junta and the interim Surayud administration. Hopefully, the new government will make it a priority to bring about reconciliation between poverty-ridden rural folk and the city-dwelling middle class.

Failure by the new government to put an end to the polarisation of national politics will lead to the prolonging of tensions and political uncertainty. This has not only put a damper on economic and social development but also poses a risk that could undermine efforts to rebuild sustainable democracy in this country.

Like it or not, the outcome of the parliamentary process to form a new coalition government must be accepted by all as a starting point to return the country to a sense of normalcy and democracy based on the supremacy of the rule of law. 

The Nation