• 
• 

Published on January 3, 2008

We lost most of 2007 because the Surayud government acted as a normal government while it was expected to perform unusual miracles to lift us out of the post-coup crisis.

Now, after the December 23 election, we are supposed to be back on the "normal" path of democracy. But we all know that it won't be anywhere near a normal country.

Whether you like the new People Power Party-led government or not, one thing it will definitely do is live up to its promise: there won't be a dull political moment in this Year of the Rat.

But don't let any political pundit, here or abroad, accuse us Thais of being politically fickle - or that we have dumbed it down to such an extent that we now treat political news on the same par as entertainment gossip. And we should make sure we don't behave in such a way that politicians think their main task is to entertain us with their manipulative tactics.

Here, therefore, is a serious analysis of the pros and cons of a PPP-led coalition government from a closed-door, roundtable debate I just attended.

First the good news: with the newly elected government in place, we won't be reading foreign dispatches with that ubiquitous "military-backed government" qualifier that haunted the Surayud government throughout 2007. In fact, we could even claim, if we really want to romanticise, that the Thai people have taught the coup leaders a painful lesson.

We could even take it one step further and make the declaration that the Thai people have once again proved that they are a genuinely democratic people - that the occasional coup is only a hiccup, not a permanent feature of Thai politics. We are now back on track and the international community can rest assured that we will once again embark on the job of ensuring that military takeovers are a thing of the past. Until the next time we mess things up again, that is.

The bad news, however, is much more challenging. The PPP-led government will be able to claim legitimacy through the ballot box. With control of over 315 of the 480 seats (pending the eventual decisions by the Election Commission and Judicial Commission on how many red and yellow cards are to be issued), the new administration can also present a picture of a decent degree of political stability.

But the more relevant question is: who's calling the shots? Is Samak Sundaravej, if he really ends up taking the post of prime minister, for real? Or as one veteran political observer asked me the other day: "Is this a real homegrown government or a government-in-exile, with the real leader based in Hong Kong?"

Ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra's long shadow over the new government will be the biggest threat to the new Cabinet's claim to transparency and accountability. The first and foremost question to be raised by at least those who refused to vote for the PPP (the Democrats even edged the PPP slightly in the popular vote) is: how will the new government handle the investigation into corruption cases against Thaksin, his family and ex-Cabinet members?

Any attempt by the PPP faction within the government to grant an amnesty to the ex-premier and the 110 other former members of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai Party will no doubt cause unease within the ranks of the coalition partners.

But, despite what is said in public by the PPP's leadership, there will be lingering doubt that the PPP's whole existence can be justified if the September 2006 coup leaders' attempt to probe Thaksin's records and to undermine his huge financial base is reversed.

The Democrats, together with the deservedly emboldened non-government agencies of civil society, will form a formidable force of checks and balances that will make a PPP-controlled government think twice before taking any steps that could be seen as interfering with the task of the various agencies charged with probing all the major corruption scandals alleged to have taken place during Thaksin's administration.

The real bad news is that the coalition government may only be paying lip service to national reconciliation. Samak, the PPP's leader, raised the question of an "invisible hand" trying to subvert his party's attempt to form the next government. Thaksin, speaking from Hong Kong the next day, took a diametrically opposite position: he said that to embark on the path of national reconciliation, he will be trying to patch things up with every imaginable political foe, especially - yes, he did name him - Privy Council President General Prem Tinsulanonda.

Who's the real "invisible hand" now?

By Suthichai Yoon

(What's your opinion on the current goings-on? Share your views in my blog at http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ThaiTalk)