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Published on December 26, 2007

By bringing aboard the Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana, Matchima and Pracharaj Parties, the coalition will have 254 parliamentary seats out of 480.

Secretary General Surapong Suebwonglee confirmed that the three small parties have agreed to join PPP in forming the coalition government.

PPP (233 MPs) has cleared the first hurdle by securing support from Ruamjai Thai Chart Pattana (9 MPs), Matchima Thipataya (7 MPs) and Pracharaj (5 MPs). There have been reports that the PPP would help repay the election expenses of these three parties in exchange for joining the coalition.

Yongyudh Tiyaphairat, a party list member of the PPP, said if the People Power Party, with 233 seats, fails to form the next government, then something must be wrong with Thailand.

The bargaining power has shifted to the People Power Party once again after it has secured coalition support from the three small parties. Banharn Silapa-archa, the leader of Chat Thai Party (37 MPs), has softened his stance fearing that his party might have been driven to the Opposition bloc.

Earlier Banharn had attempted to tie up with the Puea Pan Din Party (24 MPs) giving him muscle to bargain for the premiership post from the PPP.

But the Puea Pan Din Party is far from being unified and it looks likely that the Puea Pan Din will also join the People Power Party-led coalition. If this happens, the new government will have 278 MPs under its wing, potentially leaving only the Chat Thai and the Democrat Party (166 MPs) as the Opposition.

The chances of the Democrats to launching a counter-attack to form a government are becoming slimmer by the day. Even if it were to succeed in forming the government by tying up with all the smaller parties, it would only be able to muster a total of 248 MPs -a majority margin of only 8 MPs.

The stability of a Democrat-led government would be very shaky. Under the constitutional rules, once a government is subject to a censure debate the ministers targeted cannot vote for themselves.

This would leave all 35 cabinet ministers unable to vote for themselves in the event of an entire cabinet censure.

If the Democrats wanted to form the new government it would have to recruit outsiders to become ministers. Only the premiership must come from Parliament.

It is for this constitutional reasoning that the PPP may also want to have the Chat Thai coming on board so that it can form the new government with more than 300 MPs.

Within the Democrat camp, Abisit Vejjajiva, the party leader, Suthep Thuagsuban, Nibhon Phromphand, Vithoon Nambutr and Chaiwut Bannawat met to discuss the latest political development.

They shared a broad view that ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra would be doing everything to let the People Power Party form the core of the coalition government even at the expense of giving the premiership and other Grade A ministries to the smaller parties.

If this were to be the case, Samak Sundaravej, the PPP leader, would be a casualty and his political career would end in a poor light.

An official of the People Power Party said Banharn yesterday placed a phone call to Chalerm Yoobamrung, a party list member of PPP, to negotiate the terms for joining the coalition. Banharn told Chalerm that he wanted Cabinet posts such as Agriculture Ministry, Transport and Communication Ministry, the Sports and Tourism Ministry, the Human Resources and the Social Development Ministry.

However, it is too early to arrive at any conclusions regarding specific Cabinet posts.

Speaking out publicly, Banharn insisted that the Chat Thai still has a strong commitment from the Puea Pan Din to form an alliance. He said he would wait for the Election Commission to issue red or yellow cards against candidates alleged to have been involved in election irregularities, before making any further political moves.

"If there were 10 red cards issued disqualifying candidates, then there would be a big change in the situation. It will all become very confusing. We will have to wait for the results first," Banharn said.

In the meantime, Banharn has been contacted by the Democrats, who would also like to join up with the Puae Pan Din Party to form a three-party alliance. This would effectively end the chances of the PPP enjoying a smooth ride.

Inside the Ruamjai Thai Chat Pattana Party, its leadership team, including Suwat Liptapanlop and Pradit Phatraprasit, has received approaches from both the PPP, the Democrat Party and the Chat Thai Party, according to its official. But the Ruamjai Thai Chat Pattana prefers to go along with the People Power, which offers more attractive terms, he said.

The Ruamjai Thai Chat Pattana is not certain as yet that the Democrat, Chat Thai and Puae Pan Din would be able to form an alliance. The party is willing to reconsider any other possibilities and would look at any further proposals, the official said.

The Nation