• 
• 

Hello everyone. Nice meeting you on one of the biggest days in modern Thai political history. From TV reports and our roaming journalists, it looks like we are heading to a very high voter turn-out. But then again, we have seen quite a few false dawns, especially in Bangkok. I would say a 70 per cent turn-out for the capital would be a great success.

I will be with you here until I pass out. As usual, the page will be updated regularly and we will discuss everything related to this controversial, divisive, acrimonious and whatever-you-call-it return to democracy. Refresh the page once in a while and leave any insight or rant in the comment section. I know a few of you are about to explode, as our awkward effort to minimize abuses from both sides of the political conflicts led to very limited channels for comments.

I'm not asking you to be extremely polite in your comments, though. Please just keep in mind people think differently, and while this may not be a perfect path back to democracy, at least we Thais are making another try.

2.30 PM: Half and hour to go. Stay tune to our website for immediate results of exit polls. Pollsters have been as divided as the country as far as projections are concerned, and I have a feeling that some of them are set to lose faces big time.

Anyway, a glance at newspaper headlines today and one get an impression that life will be very hard for the People Power Party if it can't score a landslide victory. A four-party coalition government led by the Democrats is a major speculation featured on a few front pages. The key is Bangkok, though. If the Democrat Party loses in the city, such a coalition will boast anything but legitimacy.

3.10 PM: The fun, or is it?, has begun. Suan Dusit exit poll results have got all pro-PPP Nation staff in delirium.  Suan Dusit pollsters gave the PPP a staggering 256 seats, enough to form a one-party government, albeit a not-so-stable one.

It's a daring prediction by Dusit Poll. But it's a make-or-break. They are the first to annouce the exit poll results. If they are proven right, they will get a great boasting right over rivals.

3.20 pm: ABAC exit polls have the PPP winning 202 seats, compared with 146 for the Democrats. Let's put it this way, Samak Sundaravej is prime minister if Suan Dusit is right, and Abhisit Vejjajiva has a really good chance if ABAC is more accurate.

Ramkhamhaeng exit polls, meanwhile, gave the PPP 221 seats. There's still no report on the Democrats at the moment. This number, however, will put Samak in the driving seat. 

 Rumours have it that ABAC exit polls found the Bangkok race so tight the pollsters dared not release immediate results, pending further checks.

We have had some technical problems that delayed our web updates. I hope they solve the trouble soon.

3.50 pm: There are quite a few long faces in the newsroom. Now the attention has been shifted to whether the PPP will actually win the majority control in Parliament and become a one-party government. The Democrats have refused to bow out, saying as long as official counts do not confirm the PPP as winning more than 240 seats, anything can happen.

4.40 pm: Sorry, everyone. Our net server has become very unstable. A lot of updated contents have been stuck in nowhere.

First thing first, if you want to watch live votecount, click "start" on the first page that pops up once you visit our website. The vote count page is not automatically updated, so you will have to refresh it regularly.

What's very interesting now is that the official votecount shows a neck-and-neck race so far between the PPP and Democrats in the party list category.  This makes it quite a big mystery as to why the PPP is pulling away in the constituency battle.

Also, the early counts show the Democrats leading in Bangkok, somewhat contradicting the Suan Dusit poll results.

5 pm: The party list vote outlook is getting very interesting. What if the Democrats end up the winner. Of course, it's way too early now, but the Democrats are actually leading in party list count at this point. There will be heated debate over legitimacy if the PPP loses the party list war. Well, at least this makes the whole thing look a bit more exciting, amid the intitial speculation that it was going to be all-PPP.

One important note, though, when party list votes from the Northeast come in full force, the picture could look very different.

5.40 pm: Our political desk also points at the Puea Pandin Party's poor showing. This could have something to do with the unusual conflict between the constituency votes and party list votes so far. Still it's too early to tell. Anyway, if the final results end this way, will this mean some voters chose the Democrat Party in the party list ballot and went for PPP candidates in the constituency ballots? A highly unusual phenomenon.

7 pm: Our news meeting started tumultuously and ended in the same way. How the new government will look like remains a wide open scenario. It seems now that the Democrats, while losing big in the North and Northeast, can take heart in the initial Bangkok results. If the party sweeps around 25-27 seats in the capital, it will have renewed urge to fight for a chance to be the core of the next government.

And then we have the "popular vote" _ the party list outcome which as of now still favours the Democrats a bit. It's worth cautioning that a large percentage of votes from the northeastern provinces are yet to be counted.

In short, if the Democrats sweep Bangkok and end up winning the "popular vote" contest, the fight to form a government will be fierce. In fact, our own analyses have already given Abhisit a slight edge over Samak in the race for the premier post.

7.30 pm: Rumours originating from the PPP say the party has "locked up" the Chat Thai and Pua Pandin parties as potential allies. This, however, only counters earlier rumours that the Democrats had had everyone in their pocket in order to isolate the PPP. It's still a long way to go, and a long night for me, obviously.

7.45 pm: :-(     I was getting very anxious why there is not one single comment from you, so I asked someone in the newsroom to try to post a comment and there you go _ the comment section is out, part of the technical problems that have been hounding us all day. So sorry if you have tried to post something.  Talk about Murphy's Laws. I decided to do live update on the normal homepage instead of on my blog, hoping to facilitate non-blog members who may want to post some feedbacks. Poor me!!!

8.00 pm: The Democrats are still holding on to the slim party list lead. But this is amid growing bad news. Chat Thai leader Banharn Silapa-archa is said to be ready to play the kingmaker, or king himself. With his support, the PPP can form the core of the new government. Is he being offered the top post too, because Samak is too divisive a figure? We should find out very soon.

By the way, here are the party list vote results in the previous democratic exercises. In 2001, the Thai Rak Thai Party won 11.6 million votes, compared with 7.6 million votes for the Democrats. In 2005, TRT won a staggering 18.9 million votes while the Democrats won just 7.2 million.

In the charter referendum earlier this year, which was generally perceived as a test of strength between the pro- and anti- TRT forces, the "yes" votes (anti-TRT) numbered 14.7 million, while there were 10.7 million "no" votes (pro-TRT).

8.35 pm: More bad news for the Democrats. Their "popular vote" lead is no more. With more results from remote areas, the PPP has taken a slim lead for the first time but the trend is the gap is set to widen.

With the only Bangkok results to content with, the Democrats' hope to form the core of the new government is fading now. 

8.40 pm: A new twist, or so it seems. A key PPP member, Chakkrapop Penkhair, alleged that leaders of Chat Thai and Pua Paendin parties have been "summoned" to the residence of Privy Council head Prem Tinsulanonda, purportedly to get advice on which party _ the Democrats or PPP _ they should support.

Chakkrapop said everyone "should keep their eyes on" development at the Prem residence.

8.50 pm: Samak has declared victory, saying his party is only about 10 seats short of getting majority control of Parliament. "The people have shown us what they think about this party," he said, asking the smaller parties to join the PPP and form the new government. He makes it clear he wants to be prime minister himself.

PPP executive Surapong Suebwonglee said national results except those in Bangkok were consistent with his party's projections. He claims capital results showed a lot of "unusual" things that were inconsistent with what his party's surveys.

9.20 pm: Democrat leader Abhisit has thanked every Thai citizen who cast his/her vote today and expressed gratitude for giving the Democrats roughly 160 seats, the highest in the party's history. What's more interesting is he hasn't conceded defeat in the race to form a government, only saying that the other parties will have to "decide what's best for the country."

It's far from a war cry, but he isn't giving up. Samak will be given every opportunity to invite the other parties to his side, but the Democrats will be monitoring the situation, Abhisit said.

9.30 pm: The situation remains uncertain. Of course, the PPP would need only 30 more seats or so to form a government with semblance of stability. Where can it get those seats from? All eyes will be on Banharn and to a lesser extent a combination of Pua Paendin, Matchima Thipataya and Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana parties.

To clarify something that I said earlier, Bangkok is the "key" only if the Demcorats want to assert itself as the core of the new government. If they had lost in both nationwide and Bangkok contests, I'm sure Abhisit would have conceded defeat.

10.30 pm: Will Thaksin return soon? This question will become a resounding one if Samak manages to cement his claim to premiership. He told CNN today  that Feb. 14 -- Valentines Day -- would be a good day for Thaksin to return from exile in London, but that he would have to face corruption charges filed against him.

10.35 pm: Dear Barry, thanks for pointing that out. It's my fault , too , for failing to alert you that the constituency vote count contains a few errors, which unfortunately are beyond our editorial department's control. The counting itself is fine, but the total (constituency vote category) has been wrong, and the basic info like the number of eligible voters is a shameful mistake.  The number of eligible voters is around 45 million. We have alerted the people in charge but words have to get through many mouths so let's hope for the best.

11 pm: A source who is a senior Pua Paendin member told us that his party won't back Samak. Without Pua Paendin, the PPP can't live without Chat Thai, as forming a government with the other small parties will be too risky.

Rumours _ sorry friends, you are going to hear this word a lot but I would rather share everything with you _ have it that Banharn has laid down a tough condition: If he is to join the PPP, he has to be prime minister. This condition, according to the rumours, has been supported by Sudarat Keyuraphan and Chalerm Yoobamrung. Samak, of course, won't take it.

A lot of horsetrading is believed to be going on intensely. 

11.40 pm: You must be wondering where on earth Banharn is at the moment. Well, rumours _ sorry _ have it that he is meeting with Pua Paendin leaders Suwit Khunkitti and Vatana Asavahame somewhere. Together, they have a strong leverage.

The PPP, meanwhile, is reportedly set to meet leaders of the smaller parties Monday morning. The meeting at the Radison Hotel will take place around 10 am and involve Matchima Thipataya, Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana and Pracharaj parties. These three little camps can offer a combined 23 seats, plus or minus 2. Too shaky. The PPP will need either Chat Thai or Pua Paendin to boost its strength.

Thanks for everyone's comments. They gave a great sense of deja vu, when visitors to our website were bitterly divided in the wake of the coup.

This election proves Thaksin's popularity among the poor remains so strong, and underlines the Democrats' failure to take any advantage from everything thrown at the Thai Rak Thai Party by the coupmakers. The Democrats, however, have recaptured Bangkok and have scored a remarkable increase in party list votes. At first glance, things haven't changed much in the political polarity, especially if you assume that the splinter parties like Matchima Thipataya and Pua Pandin won a lot of votes portraying themselves as TRT descendents.

Dec 24. 1.10 am: It took some time to register that this is Christmas Eve. You have forgetten about it as well, haven't you? Well, this just reminds us all that there's much more to life than politics. I wish you all happiness, good health and success. Merry X'mas.

I will sign off for the night giving my last thoughts on the election results. Like I said, on the surface it seems not much has changed. But if Samak becomes prime minister and he wants to carry out his controversial mission of whitewashing Thaksin, he should have taken a closer look at the numbers. The PPP, against all odds, has won this election cleanly and fairly, and has the full legitimacy to form the new government. But the much closer gap than the previous polls must tell Samak something. I just hope he's wise enough to leave the corruption cases against Thaksin alone. He must let the judges do their job and try not to interfere. The Bangkok results and the slim PPP's advantage in the popular vote should serve as the strongest caution as to what may happen if Samak tries to help Thaksin at the expense of the rule of law.

Good night everyone. I will see you in the morning.

11 am: Good morning everyone. Hope you have had good sleep and sweet non-politics dream. And oh, happy X'mas Eve!!

A lot of things happened while you were sleeping though. The race to form a new government was fierce behind the scenes, with Banharn trying to group together the bigger of the small parties. Last night, the leaders of the Chat Thai, Pua Paendin and Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana, which together control around 80 seats, ganged up at a Vatana residence in a bid to give themselves a strong leverage.

The idea reportedly was to go to the Democrats and demand the Agriculture and Communications ministries for Chat Thai and Commerce Ministry for Pua Paendin. It was unclear yet how Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana will get and how committed it is to this alliance.

Anyway, it was said that the Democrats agreed with this in principle.

Problem is, this alliance plus the Democrats will yield around 244-246 seats, a very very thin majority. The PPP, meanwhile, was trying desperately to get support from the rest of the smaller parties, but the planned meeting with the Matchima Thipataya, Pracharaj parties this morning did not materialised. (The initial names of participants included Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana as well)

It's obvious that horsetrading will be at feverish pitch and may take long. However, our reporters at the scenes are having a feeling that the "Thaksin factor" will play a major role. But how remains to be seen. His financial might could prove decisive, but yet again, the tendency of the Thaksin sytle to swallow up smaller parties can discourage them.

And, like I mentioned before, the "closer gap" is being looked at by the smaller parties. Bangkok's shift toward the Democrats and the very close popular vote contest between them and the PPP will also feature in the small parties' decision making process.

5 pm: The PPP has claimed it has secured support from unnamed parties to form a government that will boast at least 280 MPs. This figure, however, means the PPP has won support from either Chat Thai or Pua Paendin.

Latest official results showed the PPP has won 233 seats. (I hope this is final) It's a little but significant boost for the PPP as it means support from Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana (10 seats) would take it above the minimum 241 MPs needed. And if the PPP can win over RJTCP, why can't it woo Matchima Thipataya as well? It could be much harder for Pracharaj, though.

Call me cynical, but I guess money will play a big part in the process. Yes, offering of ministerial portfolios will be a strong factor, as the Democrats and the PPP try to outbid each other to win the needed support, but we all know who's the richer party.

Another factor is the looming "red cards". I think it's the main reason why many parties are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Election results give everyone an insecure feeling, and committing one self too early to either the Democrat or the PPP camp could prove costly.

6.15 pm: Here some scenarios worked out by our political desk. Please note that the final count for the PPP is 232 seats.

People Power Party led-coalition

First scenario

PPP                                        232

Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana         9

Matchima Thipataya                     7

Pracharaj                                    5

Total                                       253 

Second scenario

PPP                                        232

Puea Pandin                             25

Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana        9

Matchima Thipataya                    7

Pracharaj                                   5

Total                                       278 

 

Third scenario*

PPP                    232

Chart Thai            37

Puea Pandin         25

Total                   294

*PPP leader Samak Sundaravej or Chart Thai Party leader Banharn Sinlapa-archa could be the PM

 

Democrats led-coalition

Democrat                                165

Chart Thai                                 37

Puea Pandin                              25

Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana         9

Matchima Thipataya                     7

Pracharaj                                    5

Total                                        248

Pro-PPP reporters in the newsroom taunt that the Democrat-led coalition is a shameless scenario, which if true, will crumble in a heartbeat. It will be very shaky, I agree. Again, red cards remain the key factor, and by January 3 we shall know better the new government's real make-up and strength.

7 pm: Samak has reconfirmed the PPP had "locked up" two unnamed parties under its wings and was trying to "boost stability" of the new government by seeking alliance with two more parties.

An unlikely name has been circulated as the PPP's first ally. You wouldn't guess it. Snoh Thienthong of all people!!!! The man who only a year or so ago said the worst moment of his political life was when he raised Thaksin Shinawatra's hand and proclaimed him the country's hero is said to be ready to raise Samak's hand and proclaim him the next saviour.

It's worth noting that the report could not be confirmed, as any agreement or pact has to wait for the red card decisions.

7.50 pm: We have just been done with another round of news meeting. What we have learned is that the PPP's strategy is to hold on to Pracharaj and Matchima Thipataya parties for dear life. Why? Because as long as the two parties is with the PPP (232+5+7), the other camp can never muster majority control of Parliament. Now what the PPP needs to do is convince and get firm commitment from Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana. Then the next step will be to extract Pua Paendin from its loose alliance with Chat Thai. (Please note that we are talking about the second PPP-led scenario here).

Our sources said Banharn seemed to have priced himself out of the market by making an impossible demand (for the premier post) in exchange for supporting the PPP. If he could not hold on to the Pua Paendin Party, it 's likely that he would be in the opposition with the Democrats. What a deja vu.

8.40 pm: The Democrat Party has apparently scored a remarkable increase in the nationwide party list votes, even edging the PPP according to unofficial results.

The Democrats were losers by a long mile in the 2001 and 2005 elections, when they were virtually thrashed by the now-defunct Thai Rak Thai Party in the party list battles. This time, the Democrats have mustered more than 14.08 million party list votes, compared to 14.07 million for the PPP, the reincarnation of Thai Rak Thai.

This left all pundits and analysts wondering where the votes could have come from, as the PPP beat the Democrats by around 4.5 million votes in the constituencies' contests. One possible reason is the fact that the Democrat Party was the only one competing under its old familiar name, whereas the other parties were more or less "new" to voters.

While rural people voted for individual candidates they knew who ran for other parties in the constituency contests, they may have found it more convenient to vote for the Democrat Party in the party list category.

Whatever the reasons, the results took some gloss off the PPP's victory. The TRT won 11.6 million party list votes in 2001, compared with 7.6 million votes for the Democrats. In 2005, the TRT won a massive 18.9 million votes while the Democrats won 7.2 million.

10.15 pm: The Chat Thai-Pua Paendin alliance is said to be trying to maintain itself, with its leaders telling reporters that the speculation about Pua Paendin switching side to the PPP was something leaked by the biggest party.

According to our reporters, the dust is far from settled, and everyone is keeping his option open. Be prepared for news of back-stabbing and double-crossing in the next few days as every party waits anxiously for the EC's announcement on who will get the red card.

I will sign off for the night here, unless something dramatic happens. Good night everyone and wish you a Merry Christmas.

Dec 25. 4 pm: Good afternoon and Merry Christmas everyone. Well, there was a major discovery while we were celebrating the Christmas Eve. Someone pointed out that there was no chance the Democrats could form the new government, unless they managed to fill the Cabinet with outsiders (non-MPs) only. Why? Because the new Constitution won't allow Cabinet ministers to cast their votes in the event that the entire government is censured. This means if 248-MP coalition government led by the Democrat Party will have its strength reduced by 30 or so MPs if the MPs-dominated Cabinet is censured by the opposition.

The constitutional rule will badly affect a PPP-led coalition as well, unless Samak is able to form a 300-MP coalition, which of course needs support from either Chat Thai or Pua Paendin in addition to the smaller parties.

Let's take the 278-MP coalition scenario of the PPP as an example. If 20 MPs become ministers, the parliamentary strength will shrink to 258 if the entire Cabinet is censured. That's only an 18-MP advantage. In Thai politics, it's a big risk.

This constitutional rule, in other words, seem to have boosted the bargaining power of the Chat Thai and Pua Paendin parties  significantly. Again, red card announcement could change things a bit, but you'll get the whole picture now. The constitutional rule must be taken into account in future speculation and analyses.

10.30 pm: We have sought the Democrats' reaction on the constitutional rule and they said the charter was obviously meant to prohibit individual ministers from voting on censure motions against themselves. In other words, the Democrats believe this rule applies to individual censure only. Which makes sense, considering that barring all ministers to vote in a censure motion against the entire Cabinet would only promote parliamentary dictatorship. 

But it will be up to legal interpretation. The charter says ministers can't vote on parliamentary affairs that have to do with their responsibilities and duties. Surely this will be a major point of discussion in the next few days.