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Published on November 11, 2007

Chart Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa's confirmation that his party may form an alliance with the Democrat Party has significant political implications as Thailand gears up for the general election on December 23. Banharn seems to have dismantled the wall of distrust between the two parties and helped improve the image of Chart Thai from that of a slick, spineless party to a trustworthy one with a good political ideology.

Banharn said last week that if the Democrat Party were to form the core of the new government, his party would be willing to join it in a coalition. On the other hand, he said, if the People Power Party, the political reincarnation of the defunct Thai Rak Thai party, were to form the next government, his party would not join the coalition, even if Banharn were offered the prime minister's post.

The veteran politician said he could not join hands with the People Power Party because he wants to keep a "good political conscience". He said he feared the public would denounce his party and he would lose his credibility by making an alliance with a party closely connected with ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Mocking Banharn's stance, People Power Party leader Samak Sundaravej said that people must want another coup if they are thinking about picking the Democrat Party over People Power Party.

The Democrats have tried hard to maintain solidarity among members of the former opposition bloc from the time of the Thaksin government. Such efforts will give the Democrats an edge in their bid to form a new coalition government after the December 23 election in case the People Power Party fails to win enough House seats to form a government by itself. Democrat Party secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban has even said that his party would be ready to ally itself politically with any party except the People Power Party.

Surveys suggest that the Democrats will win around 180 of the 480 House seats, which would be well short of the number needed to form a single-party government. The surveys also suggest that the People Power Party stands to win about 250 seats. By wooing support from other parties, the Democrat Party is actually trying to isolate the People Power Party and thus dampen its chances of forming the new coalition government.

The PPP is obviously well aware of what the Democrats have in mind. Party leader Samak's declaration that he is ready to be the new prime minister if his party wins more than half of the House seats is apparently meant to drum up public confidence and support for the upcoming polls.

Although the Democrat Party's plan to build political alliances seems to be working, party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva's chance of becoming the next prime minister is not necessarily guaranteed if the party does not win the highest number of House seats. A tricky political game over the prime minister's post will lie ahead and only those who manage to secure an upper hand in bargaining will have the edge.

Supposing the People Power Party beats the Democrat Party by a very small margin, and the latter party's seats are closer in number to those shared by Chart Thai and other parties, the smaller parties may propose Banharn as a candidate for the premiership. At a critical twist in the game, the Democrat Party might face pressure to support Banharn to lead the government instead of Abhisit.

Political veteran Sanan Kachornprasart recently gave Banharn a strong show of support by saying that he was ready to back him as prime minister. Sanan, a former Democrat Party secretary-general, joined Chart Thai after resigning as leader of the Mahachon Party and brought a group of well-known former MPs with him.

How this tricky political game will turn out will depend on how firmly the Democrats can secure the allegiance of its allies and make sure that their loyalties do not shift.