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Published on November 3, 2007

Of particular concern to Thai scientists is that this extreme heat may stay longer and engulf a much greater

proportion of the country. Peering further into the future, the new findings suggest that by 2100 much of the country could be spending eight months a year in summer temperatures of 35 degrees, compared to just three months at present.

"The modelling suggests that we will see the effects of global warming sooner than we thought, in the 2020s instead of the 2040s and 2050s," said modeller Dr Anond Sanidvongs, director of the Southeast Asia Regional Centre of the Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (Start).

"But we are not in a crisis yet. We're just beginning to see the changes, and there's still time to adapt and prepare a response."

The climate scenario assumes that there is little reduction in carbon emission in the future and little cooperation among governments to address global warming, Anond said.

Anond stressed that the climate model, developed in cooperation with the renowned UK-based Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, is not a definite forecast. It merely attempts to use the best information about future trends in carbon emissions and historical climate trends to produce the best estimates possible consistent with similar simulations conducted throughout the world.

He said the simulation was based on the input of greenhouse gases only. It does not take into account the aerosol factors like sulphate, dust and smoke from diesel engines and other burning that scientists now find produce their own climate impacts.

"The model can only point to potential trends, which in turn should guide further investigation to determine which of those trends are most likely," added Suppakorn Chinvano, who also served on the modelling team.

Anond and Suppakorn released the findings from Thailand's first climate model two years ago. With technical assistance from Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, the mode predicted a "one-to-two-degree" temperature change, longer summers and shorter winters. The findings also suggested more rainfall in almost every region.

The new model reinforces the same trends, only has them occurring more quickly. The country will have more rain, winter will be shorter, and nights will not be much cooler than the daytime. Mountainous areas in particular will be warmer, and many provinces will no longer see days below 15 degrees.

"Even Loei, the coldest province in the country, may not have days below 15 degrees any more by the end of the century," Anond said. "In Bangkok and the central region we'll be lucky to see temperatures below 22 or 23 degrees."

Joining the Thai scientists in Bangkok this week were two British climate scientists, David Hassell and David Hein-Griggs of the Hadley Centre's Met Office. They stated that Southeast Asian countries were increasingly interested in preparing climate models for their own countries to better understand the climate-change impacts to which they needed to develop responses.

The two were in Kuala Lumpur last August to offer hands-on climate-model training to some 20 scientists from countries in the region. With the climate projection that the world could see a two- to five-degree temperature increase by the end of this century, the point is of concern to scientists around the world.

"It's a question of risk and consequences," said Hassell. "Given that there's a chance of a temperature increase of five degrees, the risk of not doing anything is too great for the world to bet on."

Nantiya Tangwisutijit

 The Nation