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Published on October 2, 2007

People in Burma and around the world may have felt politically awakened following a series of pro-democracy demonstrations that led to a widespread brutal crackdown carried out by the Burmese military. Events like this do not occur often. The Burmese have had to endure a long 19-year delay since they last confronted the military regime in 1988. This time, the public fury against the junta is compounded. Even those in the monkhood could no longer remain silent.

Also, they may rest all hopes on the UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari to initiate a breakthrough in Burma's political crisis. Asean believes that the Burmese military will be restrained because of Gambari's presence. With these factors in mind, many are optimistic that the people's power and the assertiveness of the UN and the world community will at last compel the Burmese junta to loosen its grip on political power.

There are, however, many fundamental reasons why pessimism should persist regarding the political solutions in Burma and the role of external forces in propelling political changes there. I argue that it is likely that the wave of protesters will eventually die down, that Gambari will go back to New York empty-handed and that the junta will not only get away with the violent suppression of the Burmese, but will feel even more invincible in its political and military strength.

The ongoing crisis in Burma is merely another tedious chapter. At the heart of the crisis lies the Burmese military's perception of power. Power, as military regimes elsewhere have rightly observed, comes from the barrel of a gun. The Burmese junta will not simply walk away after being pressured by only defenceless protestors and the empty rhetoric of the West.

Non-violent tactics might have functioned well in the Gandhi era because, ultimately, the Indians were fighting against democratic British imperialists. But the Burmese regime is a totally different beast. The demonstrators are battling Burma's so-called neo-totalitarianism, which is innately ruthless, yet highly modern in its external approach. Instead of isolating itself like other totalitarian regimes of the world - North Korea and Cuba - the Burmese despots embrace the new trends of the contemporary world, such as partaking in regional groupings.

Power and ruthlessness are precious commodities for the Burmese junta. Earlier this year, during the 62ndAnniversary of the Burmese Armed Forces, Senior General Than Shwe vowed to "crush, hand-in-hand with the entire people, every danger of internal and external destructive elements obstructing the stability and development of the state".

On that day, the Burmese armed forces marched through the new lavish capital and waved the national flag under the shadow of statues of old Burmese kings. In the last few weeks, these same troops strutted through the streets of Rangoon, seeking to crush unarmed protestors in the name of preserving national security.

Returning to the shallow rhetoric of the West, it is clear that there has never been any gumption in the way the West has handled the Burma issue. In fact, the West's credibility has been tainted since it decided to invade Iraq some years ago, and more so following its failure to solve the Darfur crisis. Today, some things have changed in Iraq and Darfur, but for the worse. Leaders in the West have been full of verbal preaching and condemnation against vicious regimes, but lack the vision to lay clear to the public what must be done to fix the situations.

In the Burmese case, leaders of the world joined hands to demand the junta immediately desist from the use of force against demonstrators and resort to national reconciliation through peaceful negotiations. US President George Bush and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for the continuation of economic sanctions against Burma. Don't they know these were the measures of yesteryear? The Burmese ruling elite have demonstrated that they live and eat well even at the height of international sanctions. If the West wants to be serious in bringing about political transformation in Burma, they need more than troops and guns, but also money and time. Will the rest of the world approve?

Can we count on Asian powers to exercise their influence on Burma to behave in a more acceptable fashion? Can we really blame China and India for muting their voices against the regime? We must understand that the positions of China and India have remained unchanged over the years. They need stability and are not willing to jeopardise their close economic ties with Burma.

Both China and India are gearing toward industrialisation, and therefore seek raw materials and sources of energy from this smaller neighbour. What interest would they have in supporting a regime change in Rangoon? One Indian diplomat said, "We are not bothered about criticism regarding our relations with Burma given the West's record in buttressing military governments in our neighbourhoods. We are not the only democracy that works with generals."

Another source of pessimism that lurks beneath the existing political upheaval has been the question of political succession in Burma. Let's assume that the military agreed to leave the stage - what preparations have been made for transition and rebuilding the country for creating a political system acceptable to all? The junta effectively destroyed one whole generation of young leaders by shutting down national education and the networks among political activists residing inside Burma.

Will Aung San Suu Kyi be able to hold the nation together? Can she compromise with various ethnic minority leaders in the power-sharing process? Suu Kyi once declared that secession was intolerable. Yet, the ethnic minorities have never given up on their dream of self-determination.

Hence, I believe, what has been happening in Burma will wind down, and eventually go back to where it was before. The brutal scenes in Burma, which we have seen on television thanks to the Western media's superficial coverage, are just a part of entertainment in today's international affairs.

 Dr Pavin Chachavalpongpun is the author of "A Plastic Nation: The Curse of Thainess in Thai-Burmese Relations", released in 2005.

Pavin Chachavalpongpun

Special to The Nation