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Published on September 30, 2007

So what would his best game plan be now? Should Sonthi join the interim Surayud government as a deputy premier in charge of security affairs, as it has been widely speculated he will, or should he just retain the CNS chairmanship and prepare to leave intelligently in the next few months following the December 23 general election.

In fact, Sonthi's best role model in this regard is Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont himself, given that the latter has had a transparent exit plan well prepared in advance. In this context, the interim premier, a former member of the respected Privy Council, has said publicly several times that his responsibilities as prime minister would end right after the new government is formed early next year.

In other words, General Surayud will happily go home and wash his hands of politics sooner rather than later.

Provided that the election is held on schedule and there are no other untoward incidents, he will be remembered as one of the country's most important transitory premiers, albeit one who was not elected, who effectively helped put the country back on its democratic path following a one-year break.

As for Sonthi, who served in the military's special warfare unit like his predecessor Surayud, he could also expect a similarly favourable place in history if he chose to follow a similar path and wash his hands of politics.

On the other hand, if Sonthi decides to venture into politics by first taking up the deputy premiership, he will be walking a tightrope that could result in more negative consequences than any real benefits. For instance, it would be odd for the CNS chairman, who named Surayud as the interim premier following the coup, to serve under him now.

More importantly, any attempts by Sonthi to cling to power after his mandatory retirement would send the wrong message to the international community as far as Thailand's return to a democratic path is concerned. Most foreign countries, especially the US and members of the European Union, have been watching developments in Thailand with patience for the past year, and hope that free and fair elections will take place as originally announced.

Hence Sonthi would do a service to the country if he excluded himself from the next polls to show the international community that the coup leader did not want to have his cake and eat it too.

In addition, it would be even better if Sonthi decided not to take up any post in the outgoing Surayud administration or in the next government even though he could be invited to join as a deputy premier, for instance.

In short, his best option now would be to count down his remaining three-to-four months in power and then go home, just like Surayud has been planning to do for months.

Sonthi's successor as commander-in-chief, General Anupong Paochinda, should steer the military away from politics so that people can make their own decisions on the country's political future. Anupong, who has another three years to go before mandatory retirement, also needs to boost unity within the barracks so as to prevent undue interference from politicians.

As for Surayud, his final mission will likely be to ensure that the December 23 polls are free and fair. However, three of his Cabinet members have already tendered their resignations recently due to their failure to comply with the National Counter Corruption Commission's law requiring the transfer of shareholdings that exceed 5 per cent in a given company or partnership to a trust.

These are Deputy Commerce Minister Oranuj Osatananda, Information and Communications Technology Minister Sitthichai Pookaiyaudom and Interior Minister Aree Wongsearaya, who would have otherwise played a key role in the upcoming general election.

As a result, Surayud may have to consider doubling as interior minister if no suitable person is willing to take up the crucial portfolio at this juncture, since there are only about three months left for the interim administration's tenure.

 Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

 nop1122@yahoo.com