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Published on September 25, 2007

Will Thai democracy again be disrupted by military intervention?

The September 19 coup came as a shock to most people, albeit one welcomed by many as a "necessary evil" to prevent potential bloodshed. It essentially destroyed the belief that Thai democracy had matured and military coups were a thing of the past. Therefore, it's no surprise that many people are sceptical of the upcoming election and choose to see it as just another passage in Thailand's vicious political cycle.

Newly appointed Army Commander-in-Chief General Anupong Paochinda certainly said the right thing when he pledged to send soldiers back to their barracks and called for a measured distance between the military and politics. But the general's words are far from an assurance that the military is eschewing a future political role.

Of all the candidates to succeed General Sonthi Boonyaratglin as Army chief, General Anupong - despite his prominent role in last year's coup - is considered to be the most professional and democratic in his political beliefs. He is known to be steadfastly against the idea of the outgoing Army chief, who is also the chairman of the all-powerful Council for National Security, entering politics. But, of course, one would definitely be inclined to take the words of any coup-maker with a grain of salt when he starts talking about democracy.

However, one cannot help wondering if the military has learned anything from the latest coup and its aftermath. In assessing its performance on the first anniversary of the coup, the junta might have patted itself on the back for a job well done. But deep down inside, the generals know too well that their only concrete achievement was getting rid of Thaksin Shinawatra. From the day they chased the popular leader out of Government House, the junta and the government it appointed have done practically nothing in the way of laying down a foundation for the country's return to full democracy.

The euphoria that greeted the coup last September has given way to brickbats largely because of the increasing frustrations over the junta's shortcomings and its inept handling of the affairs of the state. General Sonthi and his colleagues in the armed forces seized power practically with no other agenda than removing the increasingly despotic Thaksin. Everything that came after that was more of an afterthought.

In a way, we should feel relieved that the junta came to power with little or no idea as to what it wanted to do once it was in charge. But, of course, that doesn't mean that the military will not try to retain its political influence even after the country returns to democratic rule. General Sonthi's restlessness over his own political future says a lot about how the military views its role in the post-coup era.

Preventing Thaksin's return to power and making sure that his proxies do not become a dominant political force is obviously the junta's bottom-line. The "Thaksin threat" will eventually determine the degree of the military's involvement in future politics. That means we can expect to see a lot of political manoeuvring by the military to ensure that political parties closely allied with the former leader will not gain the upper hand in the election or dominate the post-election coalition government.

What has transpired over the past year seems to have awakened the military to a new reality - that political problems cannot be solved through coups. Even with initial widespread public support, the September 19 coup has in the end turned out to be unsustainable. And that is probably the biggest lesson the military has learned from the exercise.

If a coup that is so popular at the beginning can so easily turn sour, just imagine what would happen to a coup that didn't have the public's support.    

Thepchai Yong